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HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Consumer Cyclical As of 2026-08-03 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal

EPS surprise beat

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Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 46th percentile. TTM ROE is about 6.5%.
Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 67th percentile.
Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 42th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $71.0M.
Signals are active now. EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 16.279069767441857%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

25 historical occurrences (since 2016-01-28)

120 days after: historical avg -4.3%

20-day +1.83%

60-day -3.46%

120-day -4.3%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

50%

37.5%

41.7%

Sample

Median

+0.57%

-3.47%

-5.41%

Excess

+0.58%

-7.09%

-9.1%

Beat mkt rate

45.8%

16.7%

25%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.3%, lagged the market by 9.1 pts; win rate 41.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

0-20 +1.4%

20-40 -4.5%

40-60 Insufficient data

60-80 -21.1%

80-100 +6.8% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	975	+1.4%	-5.1%	42.1%	-13.4%
20-40	134	-4.5%	-0.7%	46.3%	-20%
40-60	5	Insufficient data
60-80	30	-21.1%	-20.6%	0%	-13.7%
80-100 You are here	226	+6.8%	+1.8%	53.1%	-11.5%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.53, placing it in the 85.2 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom third)

Middle

Expensive (own-history top third)

60-day momentum up

-3.6%

Win rate 34.2% Excess -9.7%

448d

-15.1%

Win rate 0% Excess -22.3%

30d

Now

+1.9%

Win rate 49.4% Excess -9.3%

243d

60-day momentum down

+5.3%

Win rate 52.5% Excess -1.4%

688d

Insufficient data
(19d)

+13.5%

Win rate 70.2% Excess +0.8%

57d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 243 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.9%, win rate 49.4%, lagged the market by 9.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,045 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.24%, a 58.1% positive-return rate, and +2.88 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg -11.18%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -16.08 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.02%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by -1.63 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg -7.64%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -8.52 pts on average.

Method and limits

Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.