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HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

31.22 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -2.7%
Open
30.26
High
31.23
Low
29.93
Prev close
30.33
Volume
3.3M
Amplitude
4.29%
P/B
1.1
Revenue YoY (TTM)
-17.4%
52W 17.09 31.23

Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good; Growth: Weak.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top; Price / book is Fair.
TTM P/E -29.18 N/A
Price / book 1.07 35th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 9.6 81th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral FCF margin, TTM is Good, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) -4.36 35th percentile Average
Operating margin, TTM (%) -6.03 30th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 8.09 57th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Weak All 2 indicators are Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) -17.36 16th percentile Lagging
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -125.97 15th percentile Lagging
Momentum Strong 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 22.3 93th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 30.58 78th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 63,545,095 83th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 36.42 42th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Harley-Davidson, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Harley-Davidson, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) peers and tracking

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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

9 historical occurrences (since 2017-03-15)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 8, Median -5.39%, Excess -2.47%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

60-day: Win 25%, Sample 8, Median -12.21%, Excess -15.79%, Beat mkt rate 0%

120-day: Win 25%, Sample 8, Median -14.27%, Excess -18.87%, Beat mkt rate 12.5%

120 days after: historical avg -9.7%

20-day -1.85%
60-day -10.9%
120-day -9.7%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.5%
25%
25%
Sample
8
8
8
Median
-5.39%
-12.21%
-14.27%
Excess
-2.47%
-15.79%
-18.87%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
0%
12.5%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 9.7%, lagged the market by 18.87 pts; win rate 25%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 83.36%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
14 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-29)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 13, Median +5.57%, Excess +2.32%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%

60-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 13, Median +3.67%, Excess +0.07%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%

120-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 12, Median +0.73%, Excess -2.42%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%

120 days after: historical avg +6.8%

20-day +3.74%
60-day +4.7%
120-day +6.8%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
53.8%
58.3%
Sample
13
13
12
Median
+5.57%
+3.67%
+0.73%
Excess
+2.32%
+0.07%
-2.42%
Beat mkt rate
61.5%
53.8%
41.7%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.8%, lagged the market by 2.42 pts; win rate 58.3%.

More history: Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg -7.31%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -8.18 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.69%, win rate 48%, beating the market by -6.33 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.