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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1817 凱撒衛. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1817
1817
strong quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 凱撒衛 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~82% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.8%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 6th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 6th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-新竹 has accumulated 400 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 國泰-松江 peaked at 39 lots, has sold 87%, 5 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.15pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.05pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-新竹 +400
- 統一-三重 +106
- 元大-沙鹿 +100
- 康和-嘉義 +96
- 元富-城中 +95
- 群益金鼎-內湖 +63
Distributing
- 國泰-松江 5 left
- 元大-成功 23 left
- 日茂 3 left
- 永豐金-敦北 11 left
- 國泰-敦南 3 left
- 統一 3 left
Desks
- 凱基-屏東 -172
- 中國信託 -136
- 玉山-城中 -75
- 台新 -44
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 1008 | +6.5% | +4.4% | 74.3% | -12.9% |
| 20-40 | 388 | +6.2% | +7.6% | 54.6% | -12.8% |
| 40-60 | 479 | +4% | +2% | 52.2% | -10.4% |
| 60-80 | 205 | +15.8% | +20.3% | 79% | -15.9% |
| 80-100 | 1 | Insufficient data | |||
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 9.65, at the 6.5th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(15d)
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 770 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.6%, win rate 75.1%, lagged the market by 2.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.08%, win rate 68.4%, beating the market by -2.71 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.77%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by -3.83 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.67%, win rate 64.1%, beating the market by -2.16 pts on average.
What does 凱撒衛 do? Company profile
Overview
1817 對應證券為凱撒衛浴股份有限公司普通股，市場別為上市公司，產業別為玻璃陶瓷，主要業務為各種衛浴設備、周邊製品之銷售。公司前身可追溯至1985年成立之聯拓精業股份有限公司，1988-01-26改組設立，2003年更名為凱撒衛浴股份有限公司，2013-10-24於臺灣證券交易所上市。總部位於新北市三重區興德路111-8號7樓；董事長蕭俊祥，總經理陳威志；實收資本額新臺幣726,000,000元，已發行普通股72,600,000股。公司合計員工規模公開徵才資料揭露為超過1,100人，且主要產線位於越南，包含瓷器、龍頭、浴缸、浴櫃／櫥櫃等工廠。2026年公司網站組織資訊顯示經營團隊包含董事長蕭俊祥、法人董事世豐螺絲代表人杜泰源、總經理陳威志等。主要股東方面，114年報列示截至115年3月28日前十大股東包含世豐螺絲10,000,000股、13.77%，蕭俊祥本人5,013,581股、6.91%且配偶未成年子女持股1,154,069股、1.59%，欣立開發3,523,000股、4.85%，和成欣業3,263,000股、4.49%，林國華2,574,574股、3.55%，蔡明熹2,573,195股、3.54%，蔡子純2,431,247股、3.35%，黃月昭2,203,538股、3.04%，張逸欣1,730,000股、2.38%，鑫星實業1,484,000股、2.04%。公司轉投資包含越南凱撒衛浴股份有限公司綜合持股99.99%、凱昇衛浴股份有限公司51.00%、POLARC CO., LTD. 57.33%。
Business
凱撒衛浴為自有品牌衛浴設備製造與銷售商，核心產品包括面盆、馬桶、給水器具／水龍頭、浴缸、浴鏡櫃、浴櫃、整體浴室及各式衛浴週邊製品與配件，並提供衛浴設備修繕服務。2025年合併營收新臺幣2,618,295千元，較2024年2,790,325千元衰退6.17%；2025年歸屬母公司業主淨利262,210千元，基本EPS 3.61元。2025年產品營收結構為瓷器類1,187,430千元、45.35%；出水類564,171千元、21.55%；電子自動化類319,727千元、12.21%；廚浴櫃類157,810千元、6.03%；浴缸類56,541千元、2.16%；其他332,616千元、12.70%。2026年前5月合併營收1,073,193千元，年增0.45%；2026年第1季EPS 1.21元。商業模式上，公司以越南自有製造基地生產，台灣母公司負責品牌行銷、代理／經銷與通路管理，銷售對象包含營建業、新建案與公共工程、五金衛浴建材行、衛浴設備代理商／經銷商、電商通路及終端消費者。公司在台灣與越南均屬主要衛浴品牌之一，海外經銷布局涵蓋越南、馬來西亞、柬埔寨、菲律賓、上海、廈門等地。關鍵技術與差異化包含歐洲Fine Fireclay高溫耐火瓷技術、燒入式抗菌釉、電漿滅菌廚房龍頭、臭氧殺菌除臭、Microbubble微氣泡、智慧離子感應、節水馬桶、水力發電感應龍頭、整體衛浴與同層排水模組化方案。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年受台灣房市信用政策緊縮、交易量下滑影響，全年營收與獲利低於2024年高基期，但電漿滅菌龍頭已導入市場並逐步放量，越南下半年因房市調控放寬與公共投資加速而回溫，帶動越南廠產能利用率回升。2026年公司年報未對外公開財務預測，但經營計畫明確指向：持續擴充越南工廠產能，浴櫃廠與龍頭二廠落成啟用後效益逐步發酵；以FFC技術布局高價位產品；加強行銷、展示間與電商平台凱撒廚衛生活館；擴大電漿抑菌廚房龍頭、抗菌產品、科技衛浴、銀髮／樂齡衛浴、整體浴室系統與同層排水方案。2026年前5月營收年增0.45%，第1季EPS年增顯著，顯示獲利仍具韌性。2027至2028年展望屬推估：主要成長動能可能來自台灣修繕需求、社會住宅與公共工程、新建工程滲透、老屋翻新、銀髮與無障礙衛浴、整體浴室模組化、越南房地產復甦、東協零關稅與區域代理商拓展，以及美國／歐美OEM或ODM訂單開發。產業趨勢包括衛浴空間家具化、智慧／電子化衛浴、節水環保、抗菌滅菌、全齡設計、缺工背景下的預組裝整體浴室。主要風險包括台灣房市交易與建案量持續低迷、利率與信用管制、越南房市復甦不如預期、銅等金屬價格與能源／瓦斯／物流成本波動、匯率波動、東南亞與中國競品價格競爭、公共工程與社宅專案驗收遞延、電漿滅菌龍頭與整體浴室新品滲透速度低於預期，以及美中貿易、關稅與地緣政治造成供應鏈不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 越南凱撒衛浴股份有限公司 未上市海外子公司；公司主要製造基地，提供衛浴設備成品所需之鍛燒、上釉、成形與瓷器、龍頭、浴缸、浴櫃等產製能力，凱撒綜合持股99.99%。
- 銅材、瓷土、釉藥、瓦斯、塑膠製品供應商 年報揭露之上游原料與零組件供應類別；未揭露具名供應商，無法確認台股上市櫃代號。
- 設備與製程技術供應商 公司歷史資料揭露導入歐洲Fine Fireclay高溫耐火瓷技術與自動施釉等設備；具名供應商未揭露。
- 營建業與新建工程／公共工程業主 下游客戶類別；採購馬桶、面盆、龍頭、整體衛浴、同層排水等產品，年報未逐一揭露具名客戶。
- 五金衛浴建材行、水電行、衛浴設備經銷商與代理商 主要通路與下游銷售夥伴；涵蓋台灣、越南與東南亞代理／經銷體系，未逐一揭露具名上市櫃公司。
- 終端消費者與修繕市場 透過展示中心、經銷通路、售後維修服務與電商平台銷售，需求來自居家修繕、老屋翻新、樂齡／無障礙與廚衛升級。
Competitors
- 和成欣業股份有限公司 1810 台股上市公司；HCG和成為台灣衛浴品牌，與凱撒在衛浴瓷器、馬桶、面盆、龍頭與工程／修繕市場競爭；同時為凱撒前十大股東之一。
- 成霖企業股份有限公司 9934 台股上市公司；水龍頭、衛浴五金與廚衛產品供應商，屬出水類與衛浴設備相關競爭者。
- 電光企業股份有限公司 1611 台股上市公司；衛浴與陶瓷相關產品品牌，MoneyDJ列為凱撒國內外競爭廠商之一。
- TOTO Ltd. 日本上市公司，非台股掛牌；國際衛浴設備品牌，於台灣高階衛浴與工程市場具競爭關係。
- 中國大陸與越南進口衛生瓷器及水龍頭供應商 年報指出台灣衛生瓷器與水龍頭進口來源以中國大陸、越南、日本占比較高，構成價格與產品競爭壓力；未具名個別公司。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.