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2243

宏旭-KY Automobile As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宏旭-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 31Quality 71Growth 61Momentum 97Chips 90

Is 宏旭-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 55th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.88
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 2,724 lots
  • sellers have 1,359 lots left, ~46 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +292% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 2,724 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 712 lots, has sold 54%, 330 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +8.72pp, mid holders +12, retail -15.21pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -126 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北永豐金-萬盛元大-台中中港摩根大通元大-南京新加坡商瑞銀
Distributing
國泰-敦南元大證券新光玉山證券康和-台北台新-城中
Desks
own scale
元大-大同兆豐-新莊元大-鳳山台新
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +2,724
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 永豐金-萬盛 +1,660
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-台中中港 +1,488
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +1,438
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-南京 +1,053
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +880
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 330 left
    sold 54%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 64 left
    sold 89%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 新光 262 left
    sold 37%· ~46 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 95 left
    sold 75%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 康和-台北 234 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 台新-城中 197 left
    sold 45%· ~19 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-大同 -1,447
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-新莊 -929
    unclassified
  • 元大-鳳山 -735
    unclassified
  • 台新 -517
    unclassified
Still selling 1,359 lots ~46 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +6,297 absorbed / -1,159 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

6 historical occurrences (since 2021-09-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 80%, Sample 5, Median +17.9%, Excess +14.74%, Beat mkt rate 80%；60-day: Win 80%, Sample 5, Median +31.53%, Excess +22.18%, Beat mkt rate 60%

60 days after: historical avg +31.58%

20-day +15.31%
60-day +31.58%
20-day
60-day
Win
80%
80%
Sample
5
5
Median
+17.9%
+31.53%
Excess
+14.74%
+22.18%
Beat mkt rate
80%
60%

Over 5 occurrences, 60-day forward avg gained 31.58%, beat the market by 22.18 pts; win rate 80%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2020-01-08)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 34.8%, Sample 23, Median -3.81%, Excess -2.1%, Beat mkt rate 21.7%；60-day: Win 23.8%, Sample 21, Median -13.07%, Excess -9.39%, Beat mkt rate 23.8%；120-day: Win 25%, Sample 20, Median -9.96%, Excess -15.73%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120 days after: historical avg -3.36%

20-day +0.23%
60-day -4.41%
120-day -3.36%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
34.8%
23.8%
25%
Sample
23
21
20
Median
-3.81%
-13.07%
-9.96%
Excess
-2.1%
-9.39%
-15.73%
Beat mkt rate
21.7%
23.8%
25%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.36%, lagged the market by 15.73 pts; win rate 25%.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.43%, win rate 41.3%, beating the market by -0.31 pts on average.

What does 宏旭-KY do? Company profile

汽車工業；汽車車身鈑金模具及檢具 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2243 對應證券為宏旭控股股份有限公司，簡稱宏旭-KY，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，外國企業註冊地為開曼群島。公司控股公司成立於2015年3月24日，前身可追溯至2000年成立的上海宏旭模具工業有限公司；2017年8月8日公開發行，2017年9月27日上市。公司登記/通訊地址為新北市林口區文化一路一段86號2樓，主要營運據點在中國大陸上海松江與浙江湖州南潯。董事長為林維源；總經理資訊來源有差異，Yahoo與Goodinfo顯示為陳廣瑞代理，鉅亨舊資料顯示林維源。發言人為蘇德仁、代理發言人為寧聖飛。股本約新台幣6.94億元，已發行普通股約69,373,596股。主要股東/董監持股資訊顯示維元股份有限公司約6,225,000股、思源投資有限公司約6,000,000股，另林維源個人持股亦為主要內部人持股之一。2025年法說會資料揭露上海工廠面積約23,000平方公尺、辦公面積約5,000平方公尺、員工374人；浙江工廠面積約25,000平方公尺、辦公面積約13,000平方公尺、員工297人，兩廠合計員工約671人。

Business

宏旭-KY是汽車車身鈑金模具及檢具專業製造商，主要產品包括汽車車身衝壓模具、檢具、胎膜及技術服務，產品定位偏向高階汽車覆蓋件、高強度結構件與輕量化零件模具。MoneyDJ資料指出，2023年汽車車身鈑金模具相關營收比重約93%，其他收入主要為廢鐵料、廢材料等銷售。其商業模式為承接整車廠或Tier 1相關專案，從投標與簽約後進入設計開發、保麗龍模型/鑄件/機械加工裝配、製模調試、廠外交付與客戶產線導入；整體營業週期約34至100週，較一般汽車零組件長，營收認列與月營收波動可能受專案驗收節點影響。下游客戶包含傳統合資車廠、國際車廠、新能源車品牌與新興市場車廠；歷史客戶包括上海大眾、上海通用、長安福特、廣汽本田、廣汽豐田、東風日產、福特、Volvo等。2025年法說會資料顯示，公司重新定位五大客戶群：新興市場客戶、高端客戶、新一線客戶、老牌傳統客戶與聯合開發客戶；並與鴻蒙智行五大品牌均有業務合作，問界品牌外覆蓋件模具承制比例逾70%；2024年第一大客戶為吉利生態系，2025年持續合作。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以新能源車、車身輕量化、高階外覆蓋件模具、新興市場與高端品牌專案為主軸。成長動能包括：1.新能源車滲透率提升帶動新車型開發與改款週期，車身模具需求隨新平台與新材料增加；2.公司2025年法說會指出高技術含量與高附加值輕量化零件模具業務快速成長，2025年鋁合金業務比例預計超過全年業務30%；3.公司已切入吉利、鴻蒙智行/問界、比亞迪等中國新能源車供應鏈，並與上海大眾、北汽集團簽訂戰略框架協議；4.海外與新興市場布局加速，2025年重新切入印度市場並取得TATA汽車、JSW汽車等訂單，另已進入越南、泰國、土耳其等市場；5.高端品牌方面，2025年法說會揭露承接賓士、寶馬、奧迪、捷豹等高檔車企專案；6.公司以自有雲系統、數據中心、MES與設計軟體二次開發強化生產效率與專案管理。主要風險包括：汽車景氣與車廠新車開發週期波動、單一或少數專案驗收導致營收與獲利波動、營業週期長造成存貨與營運資金壓力、中國車市價格競爭壓縮供應鏈利潤、鋁合金/高階模具量產良率與交期風險、人民幣匯率與中國大陸營運集中風險、客戶集中度與專案切換風險，以及KY架構與資訊透明度需持續追蹤。2026至2028年未見公司逐年量化財測，相關展望屬依公司法說會與產業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鑄鐵件供應商 汽車模具主要原材料為鑄鐵件，鑄鐵件上游為生鐵與廢鋼；公司生產活動主要在中國大陸，大部分原物料於中國大陸採購，未確認特定上市櫃供應商名稱。
  • 保麗龍模型供應商 模具加工製造階段需要保麗龍模型；年報/公開說明書摘要提及公司透過與保麗龍模型供應商簽訂年度合約鎖定主要原物料價格，未揭露具名台股上市櫃供應商。
  • 五金件與模具標準件供應商 公司製程需要五金件、模具標準件與相關機械加工材料；公開資料僅提及類別，未確認具名台股上市櫃供應商。
  • 大型數控加工與調試設備供應商 上海與浙江工廠配置多台大中型數控加工設備與調試設備；設備品牌與供應商未於可查資料中明確揭露。
Downstream
  • 吉利汽車/吉利生態系 香港上市及海外/中國相關集團，非台股上市櫃。2025法說會指出吉利生態系為2024年宏旭第一大客戶，涵蓋吉利汽車、富豪、寶騰、路特斯、倫敦電動車、遠端汽車、領克、Polestar、幾何等品牌外板與結構件模具。
  • 鴻蒙智行/問界 中國新能源車品牌體系，非台股上市櫃。宏旭已與華為系鴻蒙智行五大品牌開展業務合作，問界品牌外覆蓋件模具承制比例逾70%。
  • 比亞迪 香港及深圳上市公司，非台股上市櫃。市場與法說會摘要指出宏旭已切入比亞迪等新能源車供應鏈。
  • 上海大眾 中國合資整車廠，非台股上市櫃。公司2025法說會指出已簽訂未來三年戰略框架協議。
  • 北汽集團 中國汽車集團，非台股上市櫃。公司2025法說會指出已簽訂未來二年戰略框架協議，涵蓋北汽股份、北汽新能源、北汽越野車業務。
  • 福特 美國上市汽車公司，非台股上市櫃。宏旭與福特長期合作，法說會資料指出連續十五年專案合作，業務涵蓋全球福特各大生產基地。
  • 賓士、寶馬、奧迪、捷豹等高端車企 多為海外汽車品牌或集團，非台股上市櫃。2025法說會指出年內承接相關高檔車企專案，地區涵蓋歐洲、中國、北美等。
  • TATA汽車與JSW汽車 印度汽車/工業集團相關客戶，非台股上市櫃。公司2025法說會指出重返印度市場並取得多個主要車企訂單。
  • Gestamp、ATC、COSKUNOZ、Thyssenkrupp、SARIGOZOGLU、福特德國科隆工廠 海外模具或汽車供應鏈合作夥伴，非台股上市櫃；公司2025法說會列為聯合開發或合作夥伴，合作涵蓋工藝、結構、加工、鑄造、調試等。

Competitors

  • 英利-KY 2239 台股上市公司，汽車零組件與車身結構相關業務；MoneyDJ列為宏旭主要競爭對手之一。
  • 江申 1525 台股上市公司，汽車鈑金、車體零組件與模具相關業務；MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一。
  • 天汽模 深圳上市公司，代號002510.SZ，非台股上市櫃；中國汽車模具主要同業。
  • 成飛集成 深圳上市公司，代號002190.SZ，非台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為汽車模具競爭廠商。
  • 瑞鵠汽車模具 中國上市汽車模具公司，非台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為主要競爭對手之一。
  • 煙臺開元模具 中國汽車模具同業，未確認台股上市櫃，故stock_id為null。
  • 泰利汽車模具 中國汽車模具同業，未確認台股上市櫃，故stock_id為null。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.