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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2387 精元. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2387
2387
quality needs a look, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 精元 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 21th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 67th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 21.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 1,736 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 844 lots, has sold 27%, 616 left, ~27 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.92pp, mid holders -8, retail +1.20pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,929 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦證券 +1,736
- 美商高盛 +1,006
- 台新證券 +884
- 康和 +555
- 國票-北高雄 +549
- 華南永昌-小港 +385
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 616 left
- 永豐金證券 233 left
- 宏遠-館前 80 left
- 華南永昌-淡水 30 left
- 統一-新竹 73 left
- 新光 94 left
Desks
- 元大證券 -1,924
- 美林 -1,368
- 元大-北屯 -1,242
- 台新 -1,011
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 854 | +14.3% | +11.2% | 59.3% | -3.7% |
| 20-40 | 495 | +11.7% | +0.4% | 50.1% | -4.3% |
| 40-60 | 605 | +3.2% | -20.7% | 29.1% | -10.5% |
| 60-80 You are here | 147 | +60.5% | +81.7% | 70.1% | +40.9% |
| 80-100 | 571 | +49.7% | +50.3% | 91.2% | +25.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 13.82, at the 67.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 321 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 62.8%, win rate 91.6%, beat the market by 52.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.95%, win rate 47.8%, beating the market by +0.73 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.05%, win rate 46.4%, beating the market by +2.35 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.21%, win rate 54.4%, beating the market by -0.29 pts on average.
What does 精元 do? Company profile
Overview
2387 對應證券為精元，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司正式登記成立日為 1991-07-22，上市日為 1999-01-25；公司官網另稱創立於 1975 年，推測係指前身或集團事業起源，與公開資訊觀測站及交易所基本資料的公司設立日不同。總部位於台中市大雅區昌平路四段475號。董事長為蔡火爐；總經理原為李明擇，依 2025-12-16 重大訊息，2026-01-01 起改由羅逸擔任。資本額約新台幣 19.52 億元，已發行普通股 195,251,051 股。2025 年報揭露截至 2025-03-31 台灣母公司員工 281 人；集團主要生產據點含中國大陸江蘇、常熟、重慶、江西、深圳，以及泰國、越南等。主要股東及經營團隊持股以蔡火爐家族為核心：蔡火爐約 38,476,233 股、蔡曾淑萍約 23,221,253 股、蔡侑學約 3,000,000 股；董監事及大股東持股合計約三成以上。
Business
精元為全球主要筆記型電腦鍵盤製造商，官網稱其為世界第一大筆記型電腦鍵盤製造商。主要採 OEM/ODM 模式，為筆電品牌與 ODM 代工廠提供鍵盤、桌上型鍵盤、無線鍵盤、滑鼠、觸控板、數位筆、背光模組與鍵盤關鍵零組件。2024 年度年報揭露營業比重為筆記型電腦鍵盤 73%，其他產品含薄型/無線鍵盤、滑鼠、觸控板、觸控筆及背光模組等 27%。公司商業模式以筆電鍵盤大量製造、垂直整合與客戶新機種共同開發為核心；垂直整合範圍包括模具開發、塑膠射出、噴塗、印刷、SMT、薄膜線路與組裝測試。主要銷售對象為亞洲地區各大電腦品牌組裝廠，並供應亞、歐、美洲通路商；年報列示 2024 年 A、B、C 三大客戶占銷貨淨額約 25.45%、25.08%、11.04%，但因契約因素未揭露真實名稱。終端應用以筆記型電腦、桌上型電腦與其他 HID 人機介面裝置為主，並延伸至平板、AIO、簡報器、手寫板與消費性電子周邊。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以成熟 PC 供應鏈中的成本控管、產能區域分散與非鍵盤產品占比提升為主。2025 年公司受全球筆電需求疲弱、美國關稅不確定性、新台幣升值及產品價格壓力影響，前十個月營收年減約 18%，毛利率約降至 15% 水準；全年營收約 188.72 億元、年減約 19.16%。2026 年公司管理層曾預期 PC 需求持平、營收有機會個位數成長、毛利率力守約 15%；泰國廠已量產逾一年，越南廠第一期完成並預計 2026 年第一季或 3 月量產，東南亞產能占比目標最高約 10%，有助分散中國大陸產能、回應美系及歐美客戶去風險化要求。產品面成長動能包括觸控板模組、背光模組、觸控筆、超薄鍵盤、機械式鍵盤、無線模組、藍牙應用與鍵盤關鍵零組件；AI PC 可能帶動換機需求，但鍵盤本身規格差異有限，較可能是穩定出貨而非大幅提高單價的題材。2026 以後的主要風險包括全球 PC 出貨波動、DRAM/SSD 漲價壓抑 PC 終端需求、品牌客戶庫存調整、美國關稅及地緣政治、人民幣/新台幣匯率、紅色供應鏈價格競爭、中國大陸人力與環保成本上升、越南與泰國新廠初期效率不穩，以及業外匯兌或拆遷補助不可持續。2027 至 2028 年公司未公開具體財測；合理推估其策略重點仍是東南亞量產爬坡、自動化、提升非鍵盤 HID 產品與關鍵零組件自製率，但若 PC 市場因記憶體短缺與高售價延續低迷，成長將受限制。
Supply Chain
- 濱川企業股份有限公司 1569 年報揭露主要原料鋁板供應商為濱川，供應狀況良好；濱川為台股上櫃公司。
- 科嘉(開曼)股份有限公司 5215 年報揭露 Membrane 薄膜線路供應商包括科嘉；科嘉-KY 為台股上市公司，主要產品包含薄膜觸控開關等鍵盤相關零組件。
- 昆山興協和科技股份有限公司 年報揭露 Membrane 供應商包括興協和；公開資料顯示其為中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
- 鍵帽、支撐架、中板、橡膠、線路板、鐵板或鋁板供應鏈 年報列為筆電鍵盤上游關鍵材料與零組件；除已揭露之濱川、科嘉、興協和外，其餘供應商未具名。
- 仁寶電腦工業股份有限公司 2324 年報列為全球主要筆電 ODM 大廠之一，精元為其鍵盤主要供應商之一；實際個別客戶銷售占比未具名揭露。
- 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 年報列為全球主要筆電 ODM 大廠之一，屬精元筆電鍵盤下游客戶群。
- 英業達股份有限公司 2356 年報列為全球主要筆電 ODM 大廠之一，屬精元筆電鍵盤下游客戶群。
- 緯創資通股份有限公司 3231 年報列為全球主要筆電 ODM 大廠之一，屬精元筆電鍵盤下游客戶群。
- 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 年報以富士康列為全球主要筆電 ODM 大廠之一；鴻海為台股上市公司，屬下游組裝客戶群之一。
- 全球筆記型電腦品牌廠 年報表示世界重要筆電品牌廠均為公司客戶，但未揭露品牌名稱；外部媒體稱精元供應蘋果及非蘋陣營，個別客戶仍以公司正式揭露為準。
Competitors
- 群光電子股份有限公司 2385 年報明列主要競爭對手之一，同為 Notebook Keyboard、RF Keyboard 等輸入裝置供應商。
- 達方電子股份有限公司 8163 年報明列主要競爭對手之一，產品與精元在筆電鍵盤及輸入裝置領域重疊。
- 光寶科技股份有限公司 2301 年報列為筆記型電腦鍵盤其他重要供應商之一。
- 中國大陸紅色供應鏈鍵盤與零組件廠 年報指出紅色供應鏈投入造成價格下滑與毛利壓力；未具名且多非台股掛牌。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.