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2412

中華電 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

252d high

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中華電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 中華電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.6%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 60th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -17.9% of volume (net sell).
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.51

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
華南永昌 holds 19,821 lots
sellers have 12,083 lots left, ~654 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 華南永昌 has accumulated 19,821 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 33,033 lots, has sold 90%, 3,415 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.98pp, mid holders -3, retail -0.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -18,778 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

華南永昌國泰證券統一元大證券凱基大和國泰

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛臺銀花旗環球台新-建北法銀巴黎

Desks

own scale

新加坡商瑞銀華南永昌-中正康和國票-敦北法人

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

華南永昌 +19,821

sold 1%· still adding
國泰證券 +18,877

sold 2%· still adding
統一 +16,431

sold 0%· still adding
元大證券 +14,206

sold 0%· still adding
凱基 +11,927

sold 0%· still adding
大和國泰 +11,473

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

台灣摩根士丹利 3,415 left

sold 90%· ~5 sessions to clear
美商高盛 4,249 left

sold 78%· ~654 sessions to clear
臺銀 3,405 left

sold 49%· ~10 sessions to clear
花旗環球 2,895 left

sold 51%· paused recently
台新-建北 802 left

sold 36%· ~17 sessions to clear
法銀巴黎 212 left

sold 74%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

新加坡商瑞銀 -13,393

hedge desk · will cover
華南永昌-中正 -9,870

unclassified
康和 -7,658

unclassified
國票-敦北法人 -6,053

unclassified

Still selling 12,083 lots ~654 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +38,180 absorbed / -11,733 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -16,589 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-27)

120 days after: historical avg +3.08%

20-day +0.53%

60-day +1.72%

120-day +3.08%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

52.1%

51.1%

76.1%

Sample

Median

+0.54%

+0.1%

+2.38%

Excess

-0.79%

-1.82%

-1.7%

Beat mkt rate

43.8%

34%

41.3%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.08%, lagged the market by 1.7 pts; win rate 76.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data

20-40 Insufficient data

40-60 Insufficient data

60-80 +10%

80-100 +6.9% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	0	Insufficient data
20-40	0	Insufficient data
40-60	9	Insufficient data
60-80	518	+10%	+10.2%	98.6%	-9.1%
80-100 You are here	2491	+6.9%	+6.4%	88.8%	-9.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 28.93, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Insufficient data
(0d)

+5.4%

Win rate 100% Excess +1.4%

50d

Now

+3%

Win rate 77.8% Excess -4.5%

2145d

60-day momentum down

Insufficient data
(0d)

Insufficient data
(17d)

+5.1%

Win rate 90.8% Excess -5.9%

926d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 2145 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3%, win rate 77.8%, lagged the market by 4.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.47%, win rate 61.8%, beating the market by -2.02 pts on average.

What does 中華電 do? Company profile

通信網路業／電信服務台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2412 對應中華電信股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，並以 ADS 於紐約證券交易所掛牌（NYSE: CHT）。台股基本資料列成立日為 1996/06/15、掛牌日為 2000/10/27；公司 20-F 則揭露中華電信於 1996/07/01 由交通部電信總局營運部門公司化設立，2005/08/12 政府持股降至 50% 以下後完成民營化。總部位於台北市中正區信義路一段 21-3 號。董事長為簡志誠，總經理為林榮賜，發言人為許文馨。實收資本額為新台幣 77,574,465,450 元，已發行普通股 7,757,446,545 股，每股面額 10 元。2025 年底合併員工數 32,606 人，母公司員工數 20,443 人。主要股東方面，截至 2026/02/28，ROC 政府合計持有約 40.76%，其中交通部持有 2,737,718,976 股、約 35.29%；新光人壽於 2026/02/28 持股約 3.73%。公司最大股東仍為政府／交通部，20-F 並揭露交通部對非獨立董事與公司重大經營方向具重要影響力。2025 年全年合併營收 2,361.1 億元、EPS 4.99 元；董事會提議 2025 年度現金股利每股 5.20 元，仍須依股東會決議口徑認定。

Business

中華電信是台灣最大綜合電信營運商之一，核心業務涵蓋行動通信、固定通信、寬頻上網、數據網路、IDC、雲端、資安、AIoT、系統整合、國際電信、海纜與通路銷售。2025 年營收結構依 20-F：消費者事業 1,433.65 億元、占 60.7%，包含行動服務 589.19 億元、固網服務 430.78 億元、終端銷售 385.03 億元及其他；企業客戶事業 772.36 億元、占 32.7%，包含固網服務 335.89 億元、ICT 303.60 億元、行動服務 95.30 億元及其他；國際事業 95.17 億元、占 4.0%，包含國際固網與 ICT；其他事業 59.96 億元、占 2.6%。商業模式以月租與流量型電信服務、企業專線與雲網資安專案、IDC／雲端經常性收入、手機與終端銷售、國際語音與數據連線等組成。銷售通路包括 17 個營運處、434 家自營門市、14 個客服中心、線上門市，以及 240 家神腦獨家服務門市。公司表示 2025 年無單一客戶營收超過合併營收 10%，顯示客戶高度分散；終端應用涵蓋個人行動與家用寬頻、企業數位轉型、政府與公共服務、金融、製造、醫療、交通、智慧城市、跨境資料傳輸、雲端與 AI 算力需求。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年中華電信營收、營業淨利、歸屬母公司淨利與 EPS 均超越財測高標，全年營收創歷史新高，成長主因來自行動 5G 升級、寬頻升速、企業 ICT、IDC、雲端、資安、AIoT 與國際數據需求。2026 年公司財測合併營收 2,419.9 至 2,436.8 億元，年增約 2.5% 至 3.2%，EPS 4.82 至 5.02 元；成長動能明確指向行動通信、寬頻接取、數據網路、永續、數位韌性與 AI 賦能等 ICT 新業務。2026 年第一季營收 599.9 億元、年增 7.5%，EPS 1.30 元，並超越單季財測高標，管理層指出 ICT 業務在 IDC、雲端及 AIoT 需求帶動下成長。2026 至 2028 年可觀察的中期主軸包括：一、AI 與 AIDC 算力雲平台擴建，結合既有 IDC、光纖骨幹與企業客戶基礎，提供 AI 算力、雲端、資安與 AIoT 解決方案；二、5G 用戶升級、5G Advanced、企業專網與行動加值服務推升 ARPU；三、FTTx、2Gbps 光世代、MOD／影視服務及家庭寬頻升速維持消費者事業現金流；四、海纜投資如 SJC2、APRICOT、E2A、AUG East 與多軌衛星網路強化國際頻寬、台灣資料匯流與災害備援；五、資安、政府韌性網路、智慧城市、智慧交通、醫療與能源管理等專案需求增加。主要風險包括台灣行動市場高度成熟與價格競爭、固網寬頻面臨有線電視與行動綁約競爭、電價與人才福利推升成本、AIDC 與海纜資本支出回收期較長、資安攻擊與網路中斷風險、頻譜與電信法規管制、政府大股東可能影響資本配置，以及海纜與國際連線受地緣政治與施工進度影響。2027 至 2028 年展望屬基於公司已揭露策略與產業趨勢的分析推估，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream

諾基亞 Nokia 國際電信設備供應商；中華電信曾揭露／新聞報導其為 5G、核心網、專網或網路設備合作供應商，非台股掛牌公司。
愛立信 Ericsson 國際電信設備供應商；與中華電信 5G、節能網路設備與企業專網方案相關，非台股掛牌公司。
慧與 HPE 企業 IT、邊緣運算與 5G 專網方案合作供應商，屬美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
思科 Cisco 網路設備、核心網與企業網路供應商；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證資料提及國際 Cisco 核心網，屬美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
亞旭電腦 3169 台股上市網通設備商；曾列入中華電信 5G 專網／開放網路驗證與方案合作廠商。
啟碁科技 6285 台股上市網通設備商；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
中磊電子 5388 台股上櫃網通設備商；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
智易科技 3596 台股上市寬頻與網通設備商；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
明泰科技 3380 台股上市網通設備商；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
台達電子 2308 台股上市電源、機房、網通與基礎設施供應鏈公司；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
光寶科技 2301 台股上市電源與電子設備供應鏈公司；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商。
廣達電腦 2382 台股上市伺服器與雲端設備供應鏈公司；中華電信 5G 開放網路驗證計畫列名協助驗測之國內廠商，亦為雲端與 AI 基礎設施潛在供應鏈。

Downstream

神腦國際 2450 中華電信手機、寬頻、MOD 與門市服務通路合作夥伴；20-F 揭露 2025 年底有 240 家神腦獨家服務門市。
個人與家庭用戶行動通信、家用寬頻、固網、MOD、手機銷售與數位內容主要終端客群，非公司。
企業客戶採購專線、IDC、雲端、資安、AIoT、系統整合與行動企業方案；客戶分散，2025 年無單一客戶超過營收 10%。
政府機關與公共部門智慧城市、資安、韌性網路、公共服務、環境監測、交通與醫療應用的重要終端客群，非上市櫃公司。
Singtel AUG East 等國際海纜聯盟成員與國際連線合作夥伴，屬新加坡上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Amazon Web Services AUG East 海纜聯盟成員與國際雲端／OTT 頻寬需求方；母公司 Amazon 為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Microsoft AUG East 海纜聯盟成員與國際雲端／OTT 頻寬需求方，屬美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

台灣大哥大 3045 台股上市電信業者；與中華電信在行動通信、5G、企業服務、寬頻綁約、OTT 與資通訊服務競爭。
遠傳電信 4904 台股上市電信業者；與中華電信在行動通信、5G、企業 ICT、IDC、雲端與 AIoT 競爭。
台灣固網固網、企業專線與數據服務競爭者；為台灣大哥大集團相關公司，未單獨台股掛牌。
新世紀資通固網與專線服務競爭者；屬遠傳集團相關公司，未單獨台股掛牌。
安碁資訊 6690 台股上櫃資安服務商；20-F 將 Acer Cyber Security 列為中華電信資安專業服務與 IDC 相關競爭者之一。
伊雲谷 6689 台股上市雲端服務與雲端代管商；20-F 將 eCloudvalley 列為雲端服務競爭者之一。
精誠資訊 6214 台股上市系統整合商；20-F 將 SYSTEX 列為雲端服務及系統整合競爭者之一。
有線電視多系統業者與獨立系統台在固定寬頻與影音服務市場以低價寬頻、固網／行動綁約及內容服務競爭；個別公司多未直接以同一業務主體掛牌。
國際雲端服務商與系統整合商 AWS、Microsoft Azure、Google Cloud 及其經銷／代管夥伴在雲端、IDC、AI 算力與企業數位轉型方案上構成競爭與合作並存關係；多數非台股掛牌。

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.