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3054

立萬利 Food As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 立萬利 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 38Quality 97Growth 99Momentum 50Chips 37

Is 立萬利 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 9.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 45th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 30th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 786.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.21
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 高橋 holds 237 lots
  • sellers have 479 lots left, ~480 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +126% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 高橋 has accumulated 237 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 202 lots, has sold 80%, 40 left, ~400 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.05pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.54pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -144 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
高橋中國信託-高雄台新-新店元大-士林永豐金證券臺銀-高雄
Distributing
元大證券元富-安南台灣摩根士丹利大昌-樹林國票-長城華南永昌-板橋
Desks
own scale
元大-景美台新-高雄國泰-館前富邦-高雄
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 高橋 +237
    sold 0%
  • 中國信託-高雄 +194
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 台新-新店 +82
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 元大-士林 +67
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金證券 +56
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 臺銀-高雄 +54
    sold 8%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 40 left
    sold 80%· ~400 sessions to clear
  • 元富-安南 88 left
    sold 56%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 30 left
    sold 81%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 大昌-樹林 48 left
    sold 66%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 國票-長城 25 left
    sold 82%· ~31 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-板橋 20 left
    sold 78%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-景美 -594
    unclassified
  • 台新-高雄 -231
    unclassified
  • 國泰-館前 -175
    unclassified
  • 富邦-高雄 -153
    unclassified
Still selling 479 lots ~480 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +480 absorbed / -362 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -78 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 786.01%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

93 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.5%, Sample 92, Median -0.51%, Excess +1.83%, Beat mkt rate 33.7%；60-day: Win 43.3%, Sample 90, Median -2.04%, Excess +4.49%, Beat mkt rate 34.4%；120-day: Win 35.2%, Sample 88, Median -3.81%, Excess -2.64%, Beat mkt rate 23.9%

120 days after: historical avg +6.67%

20-day +3.9%
60-day +10.53%
120-day +6.67%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.5%
43.3%
35.2%
Sample
92
90
88
Median
-0.51%
-2.04%
-3.81%
Excess
+1.83%
+4.49%
-2.64%
Beat mkt rate
33.7%
34.4%
23.9%

Over 88 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.67%, lagged the market by 2.64 pts; win rate 35.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 158+15.6% +17.5% 70.3% +2.7%
20-40 You are here152-6.2% -17.7% 32.2% -25.8%
40-60 65+34.8% +8.4% 67.7% -5.2%
60-80 627+30% +7.9% 69.5% -3.7%
80-100 474-5.1% -5.9% 22.8% -48.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.0, at the 30.4th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-20.5%
Win rate 7.4% Excess -30.7%
81d
+9.6%
Win rate 37.5% Excess +3.1%
144d
+18.9%
Win rate 46.9% Excess -2.5%
486d
60-day momentum down
Now
+3.4%
Win rate 27.4% Excess -1.4%
164d
+13.2%
Win rate 44.3% Excess +3.5%
282d
+18.3%
Win rate 72.4% Excess -12.5%
438d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 164 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.4%, win rate 27.4%, lagged the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.09%, win rate 27.8%, beating the market by +9.12 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.11%, win rate 46.9%, beating the market by -0.56 pts on average.

What does 立萬利 do? Company profile

食品工業；兼具生技保健食品與電子產品貿易業務 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3054 對應證券為立萬利創新股份有限公司普通股，於台灣證券交易所上市，並非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司前身為萬國電腦／萬國科技，成立於 1991/06/14，2002/11/18 上市，2015 年更名為立萬利創新股份有限公司。公司英文名稱為 LIWANLI Innovation Co., Ltd.，主要經營業務為生技產品銷售與電子產品銷售。董事長與總經理均為陳立青；公開資料顯示發言人有張登茵或林婉菁版本，應以公司最新重大訊息為準。公司總機 02-8221-3985，官網為 https://www.liwanli.com.tw。公司地址公開資料存在差異，部分資料列新北市中和區連城路 258 號，部分最新股市資料列台北市內湖區潭美街 537 號 9 樓，需以公開資訊觀測站最新公司基本資料為準。實收資本額公開資料多列約新台幣 8.065 億元、已發行普通股約 80,651,041 股；部分資料仍列 8.341 億元，疑為資料時間差異。主要股東依公司 2024/04/01 揭露：威剛科技 43,852,925 股、52.57%；陳立白 6,387,817 股、7.66%；博士旺創新 5,140,496 股、6.16%；億生投資 3,551,578 股、4.26%；公司庫藏或自有股 2,760,000 股、3.31%；另有莊晨、吳雅郁、陳秘章、兆升投資、威潤科技等。員工人數未能在可查來源確認；Goodinfo 僅揭露 2025 年全體員工平均年薪約 238 萬元／人，未揭露人數。

Business

立萬利目前屬小型轉型公司，營運由兩條主軸構成：一是生技保健食品開發與銷售，二是電子產品、電子材料與 DRAM/NAND/3C 相關產品貿易。公司早期為行動多媒體、儲存裝置與記憶體產品廠商，2015 年後逐步結束或縮減電子記憶體製造相關部門，2017 年第四季跨足保健食品，2021 年後更積極發展保健食品與生技事業。保健食品品牌／產品包含威客維系列、滴滴鮮養身飲、NY-O3 南極磷蝦油、威護節、大王蜂激情飲、NAD+ 青春賦能粉包等，產品訴求涵蓋銀髮、男性、女性、兒童、素食族群及明亮補給、活力、代謝、機能調養等功能分類；部分產品曾取得 SNQ、國際品質評鑑獎或醫療科技獎等行銷與品質相關獎項。電子產品業務則以 DRAM IC、3C 產品、電子材料批發零售及貿易為主，受記憶體價格循環、庫存水位與母集團／通路資源影響較大。依 MoneyDJ 引用法說會資料，2024 年產品營收占比約電子產品 61%、生技產品 39%，銷售地區台灣約 72%、亞洲約 28%。富果法說會摘要指出 2025 上半年保健食品與 DRAM Refresh 貿易營收約各占 50%；2025 全年營收公開股市資料約 1.2554 億元，年增約 26.6%；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約 2.80067 億元、年增約 876%，顯示 2026 年電子或特定訂單貢獻明顯放大，但持續性仍須追蹤月營收與毛利率。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司已由 2024 年虧損基礎改善，法說會摘要顯示 2025 上半年營收約 5,000 萬元、稅後小幅獲利；2025 前三季營收約 1 億元、稅後淨利約 5,300 萬元、EPS 約 0.66 元；2025 全年營收約 1.26 億元，較 2024 年成長。成長動能主要來自保健食品新品、品牌行銷、台灣與亞洲市場拓展，以及 DRAM/電子產品貿易在記憶體景氣回升時的訂單與價格彈性。2026 年前五月營收大幅年增，若毛利率與費用控管維持，短期獲利彈性可能優於 2024-2025 年低基期表現。2025-2028 年展望可分為三層：第一，保健食品業務若能從單品行銷轉為穩定品牌與通路複購，將提高營收可預測性與毛利率；第二，電子產品貿易若受惠 AI 伺服器、邊緣裝置與一般 DRAM/NAND 補庫存循環，可提供營收放大，但波動性高；第三，公司體量小，若有母公司威剛科技的記憶體供應鏈、資金或通路支援，可能加速產品導入與市場拓展。主要風險包括：保健食品競爭激烈且需持續投入代言、廣告與通路費用；產品宣稱受食藥法與廣告法規限制；電子貿易毛利受 DRAM/NAND 價格波動、庫存跌價與匯率影響；2025 獲利部分可能含業外或金融資產評價利益，需辨識本業是否穩定轉正；公司營收規模仍小，單月或單一訂單可能造成高波動；主要股東持股集中，治理與關係人交易需持續留意。2027-2028 的具體量化目標、擴產計畫或新技術路線未能在公開來源確認，因此不做數字預估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 威剛科技股份有限公司 3260 主要股東與最終母公司；公開資料顯示其持有立萬利過半股權，立萬利電子產品與 DRAM 貿易業務可能受其記憶體產業資源支持，但具體交易條件需查財報關係人交易。
  • 三星電子 全球 DRAM/NAND 原廠之一，韓國上市公司；立萬利電子產品貿易可能面向此類記憶體原廠或通路供應鏈採購，未確認為直接供應商。
  • SK 海力士 全球 DRAM/NAND 原廠之一，韓國上市公司；列為記憶體產業上游代表，未確認為立萬利直接供應商。
  • 美光科技 全球 DRAM/NAND 原廠之一，美國上市公司；列為記憶體產業上游代表，未確認為立萬利直接供應商。
  • 專利原料、粉包、飲品、膠囊等保健食品原料與代工供應商 MoneyDJ 引用法說會資料指出食品生技主要原材料包含專利原料、粉包、飲品、膠囊；未查得明確供應商名稱，多數可能為未上市或未揭露廠商。
  • SGS 等檢驗驗證機構 公司沿革提及產品曾通過 SGS 無農藥殘留、無西藥成分、無重金屬污染等認證；屬品質驗證服務，非核心原料供應商。
Downstream
  • 台灣電商平台與實體據點 公司官網列有實體據點與電商平台購買入口；為保健食品主要零售通路，但未在可查頁面逐一確認合作平台名稱。
  • 亞洲區代理商、經銷商與通路客戶 2024 年銷售地區約台灣 72%、亞洲 28%，推估海外以亞洲通路或代理銷售為主；具體客戶未揭露。
  • 終端消費者 保健食品最終需求來自銀髮、男性、女性、兒童、素食與健康管理族群；屬 B2C 消費者市場。
  • 記憶體與 3C 產品通路客戶 電子產品業務下游客戶應包括 DRAM IC、3C 產品與電子材料通路／系統客戶；公司未揭露主要客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 葡萄王 1707 台股上市公司，保健食品與生技食品同業；MoneyDJ 與 StockFeel 均列為相關競爭對手。
  • 景岳生技 3164 台股掛牌生技食品／益生菌相關公司，屬保健食品與機能食品競爭對手。
  • 加捷生醫 4109 台股掛牌生技醫療與保健相關公司，屬保健食品通路與產品競爭對手。
  • 金穎生技 1796 台股掛牌生技食品公司，屬機能性食品與原料／產品競爭對手。
  • 漢田生技 MoneyDJ 列為食品生技競爭對手；是否為上市櫃公司未在本次查證中確認，因此 stock_id 依規範填 null。
  • 晨暉生技 MoneyDJ 與 StockFeel 列為機能性食品競爭對手；掛牌狀態未在本次查證中確認，因此 stock_id 填 null。
  • 威剛科技 3260 同屬記憶體模組與儲存產品產業，且為立萬利主要股東／母公司；在電子產品貿易與記憶體市場上既是資源來源也可能具有同業屬性。
  • 創見 2451 台股上市記憶體模組與儲存產品廠商，屬電子產品與記憶體模組同業。
  • 宇瞻 8271 台股掛牌記憶體模組與工控儲存公司，屬電子產品與記憶體模組同業。
  • 十銓 4967 台股掛牌記憶體模組與儲存產品公司，屬電子產品與消費型記憶體通路同業。
Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.