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3073

天方能源 Green Energy & Environment As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 天方能源 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 20Growth 88Momentum 1Chips 13

Is 天方能源 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 18th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 68.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.27
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 元大-三重 holds 273 lots
  • sellers have 262 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -42% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-三重 has accumulated 273 lots since the start (sold 10%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 160 lots, has sold 43%, 91 left, ~13 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.69pp, mid holders +0, retail +1.17pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -94 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-三重台灣摩根士丹利第一金-中壢兆豐-南京元大-新生永豐金-桃園
Distributing
永豐金證券美林美商高盛港商野村華南永昌-麻豆富邦-建國
Desks
own scale
兆豐-大同凱基-站前台新-松江國票-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-三重 +273
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +187
    sold 10%
  • 第一金-中壢 +178
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-南京 +165
    sold 0%
  • 元大-新生 +139
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-桃園 +103
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金證券 91 left
    sold 43%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 美林 43 left
    sold 34%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 8 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 11 left
    sold 77%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-麻豆 22 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 富邦-建國 24 left
    sold 47%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-大同 -550
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -425
    unclassified
  • 台新-松江 -171
    unclassified
  • 國票-台中 -161
    unclassified
Still selling 262 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +438 absorbed / -172 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -8 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 68.92%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

82 historical occurrences (since 2007-10-08)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.9%, Sample 73, Median -0.93%, Excess +0.23%, Beat mkt rate 37%；60-day: Win 36.6%, Sample 71, Median -7.89%, Excess -6.76%, Beat mkt rate 33.8%；120-day: Win 32.4%, Sample 68, Median -10%, Excess -16.63%, Beat mkt rate 27.9%

120 days after: historical avg -8.58%

20-day +1.95%
60-day -2.13%
120-day -8.58%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.9%
36.6%
32.4%
Sample
73
71
68
Median
-0.93%
-7.89%
-10%
Excess
+0.23%
-6.76%
-16.63%
Beat mkt rate
37%
33.8%
27.9%

Over 68 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 8.58%, lagged the market by 16.63 pts; win rate 32.4%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +19.15%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +17.4 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg -29.48%, win rate 0%, beating the market by -32.9 pts on average.

What does 天方能源 do? Company profile

綠能環保 上櫃

Overview

天方能源科技股份有限公司，前身為凱柏實業股份有限公司，成立於1991年10月22日，2007年10月8日上櫃，2020年更名為天方能源。總公司位於台北市中山區吉林路99號3樓，連絡處位於台北市中山區松江路139號6樓；董事長兼總經理為甘正智。依115年股東會年報，115年4月25日流通在外普通股39,511,028股，實收資本額新台幣395,110,280元。115年3月31日合併從業員工35人。主要股東包括力慈事業7.31%、呂玟瑩6.57%、弘祥投資4.58%、鄒平祥4.04%、慶益開發4.02%、揚東企業3.77%、翌勝投資3.34%、甘正智2.75%、順煜投資2.70%、力拓開發事業2.53%。

Business

公司已由早期電子零組件與IC貿易，轉型為再生能源售電及承攬太陽能電廠建置工程。114年度合併營收88,095仟元，年增58.33%；營收結構為再生能源86,176仟元、占97.82%，租賃收入1,919仟元、占2.18%，電子產品及勞務收入已無列示。公司及子公司持有第一型及第三型再生能源電廠，綠電可依躉購費率與台電簽訂20年躉售合約，也可透過直供、轉供售予民間企業。已併網容量包含高雄楠梓第一型案場及台南、屏東第三型案場合計約7.8MW，澎湖陸域風電參與案約9MW，子公司天方電力屏東林邊地面型太陽能案場第一期17MW已於2026年第一季併網，第二期23MW持續開發，合計目標40MW；彰化芳苑漁電共生案仍在推進。115年第一季主要銷貨客戶包括仙其、健策、立頎、日月光及其他客戶；售電收入主要來自台電及日月光，工程收入則隨各案場工程進度認列。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司營收成長主要來自漁電共生太陽光電系統建置工程收入增加，但114年度稅後淨損6仟元，較113年度受處分SPV利益帶動的淨利23,061仟元下滑，顯示獲利仍受一次性利益、工程進度與電廠建置期影響。2026年營運重點為林邊太陽能光電陸續併網、彰化漁電共生工程持續進行、詮實能源綠電轉供擴張，以及併購已併網案場以擴大長期穩定綠電供給。中長期動能來自台灣2050淨零政策、2030再生能源發電占比提升、太陽光電裝置容量目標、企業RE100與供應鏈綠電需求。主要挑戰包括地面型光電申設門檻提高、10MW以上環評要求、工程與供應商集中、專案型收入波動、利率成本、案場開發與併網時程、漁電/農電共生查核要求、同業競爭及毛利壓力。2027至2028年可觀察林邊二期23MW、彰化漁電共生、綠電轉供平台與已併網案場併購是否轉化為穩定售電現金流；此部分屬依年報與產業政策推估，非公司財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 睿騏電工有限公司 年報列為太陽能建置工程主要供應商，供應狀況良好；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 聚恆科技股份有限公司 4582 年報列為太陽能建置工程主要供應商；聚恆為台股上市綠能環保公司，提供太陽能EPC、維運、儲能等服務。
  • 昊維股份有限公司 114年度及115年第一季主要工程供應商，年報列示114年進貨80,547仟元、115年第一季28,283仟元；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 凌通科技股份有限公司 4952 113年度電子產品/IC相關進貨主要供應商；公司目前已轉型再生能源，電子產品營收114年度未列示。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力公司 主要售電客戶；再生能源電廠可依躉購費率與台電簽訂20年躉售合約，台電為國營事業、非台股掛牌。
  • 日月光投資控股股份有限公司 3711 年報列示為114年度與115年第一季主要銷貨客戶之一，推定為綠電/售電客戶。
  • 仙其能源相關客戶 年報列示115年第一季主要銷貨客戶『仙其』，可能為太陽能工程或能源專案SPV；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 健策能源相關客戶 年報列示115年第一季主要銷貨客戶『健策』，依年報脈絡視為能源案場客戶或業主；未直接對應上市公司健策精密3653。
  • 立頎能源相關客戶 年報列示115年第一季主要銷貨客戶『立頎』，可能為太陽能工程專案客戶；未查得台股上市櫃代號。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.