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4175
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 杏一 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 33th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 36th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 32th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.9% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-桃園 has accumulated 331 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 第一金-中壢 peaked at 44 lots, has sold 80%, 9 left, ~4 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.10pp, mid holders -1, retail +1.42pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-桃園 +331
- 國泰-敦南 +84
- 美好-富順 +73
- 土銀-台南 +60
- 宏遠-高雄 +42
- 國票-北高雄 +39
Distributing
- 第一金-中壢 9 left
- 國泰-台中 13 left
- 凱基-台北 8 left
- 國泰-館前 8 left
- 新光-台中 8 left
- 台新證券 4 left
Desks
- 玉山-新竹 -664
- 元大-路竹 -71
- 臺銀-金山 -56
- 中國信託-永康 -45
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 467 | +17.2% | +13% | 80.1% | -11.1% |
| 20-40 You are here | 204 | +13% | +13.2% | 95.6% | -5.2% |
| 40-60 | 46 | +16.4% | +11.6% | 87% | -6.7% |
| 60-80 | 251 | +6.2% | +6.6% | 60.6% | -18% |
| 80-100 | 991 | -1.2% | -8.2% | 32.3% | -15.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 17.37, at the 31.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 354 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.9%, win rate 61.9%, lagged the market by 13.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.12%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +1.18 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.53%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +0.05 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.99%, win rate 64.7%, beating the market by +6.94 pts on average.
What does 杏一 do? Company profile
Overview
4175 對應證券為杏一醫療用品，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司主要經營醫療及保健產品開發與零售，股票自 2014/04/23 起上櫃。公開資料顯示董事長為陳麗如，總經理為蔡德忠，總部登記/營運地址資料常見為桃園市龜山區復興一路一帶。2026/04/30 法說簡報列示公司簡介：成立時間 1990/12/04、實收資本 4.23 億元、員工 1,831 人、門市 326 店、商場 27 座、會員總數 425 萬，資料截至 2025/12。另部分公司資料庫與早期資料列設立日期為 1992/05/07，兩者口徑不同。主要股東依 113 年年報前十大股東關係表，包括麗德投資股份有限公司 11,616,286 股、持股 27.47%，軒如股份有限公司 8,774,645 股、持股 20.75%，陳玉蓮 1,628,177 股、持股 3.85%，劉智綱 1,213,190 股、持股 2.87% 等。
Business
杏一是醫療用品連鎖零售與醫院/社區健康服務通路，早期以醫院院內、院外門市切入急性醫療照護需求，逐步延伸到社區型門市、健保藥局、醫院商場、醫療被服租賃、長照與居家照護服務。主要產品涵蓋醫療照護、健康護理、生技保健、營養品、傷口護理、失禁護理、復健輔具、居家保健儀器、糖尿病與呼吸照護、造口與口腔保健等。2025 年營收比重依玉山證券資料為：醫療照護 71.69%、生技保健 14.24%、租賃 6.99%、醫療保健 6.52%、其他 0.56%。2025 年合併營收 80.1266 億元、毛利率 32.46%、稅後淨利 1.5557 億元、EPS 3.68 元；2024 年合併營收 77.3409 億元、毛利率 30.81%、稅後淨利 6,998.6 萬元、EPS 1.65 元。商業模式以直營門市、醫院商場、社區門市、電商/App/LINE 會員與 OMO 導流為核心，透過專業人員諮詢、會員分眾行銷、代理/自有品牌商品組合與高頻照護耗材需求創造回購。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能來自台灣 2025 年進入超高齡社會後的銀髮、長照、居家照護、輔具租賃、營養與失禁照護需求；公司法說資料與 2026/04/30 法說報導顯示，策略重點為「穩健展店＋長照商機」、商品核心競爭力提升、通路會員服務升級與數位工具導入。杏一將以醫院型門市、社區型門市、商場與線上平台串聯急性、慢性與日常保健需求；2025 年底台灣醫院型門市約 226 家、社區型門市 88 家、商場 24 至 27 座，後續展店更重視人力到位、單店效益與回收速度。新服務包含寄庫分批取、定期購、杏福快送、RFM/NES 會員分析與 OMO 預約體驗；長照 3.0 相關政策若推動智慧輔具租賃、居家照護補助與社區照護服務，可能帶動門市流量與高毛利照護商品銷售。主要風險包括零售服務業缺工、展店速度放緩、租金與人事成本上升、社區型門市單店效益不如預期、醫藥零售/連鎖藥局競爭加劇、中國大陸消費緊縮與醫院政策變動、通膨壓縮消費支出、供應商代理條件變動及長照政策落地速度不確定。公司未提供 2026 至 2028 具體財務預測，因此中長期數字展望不做推估。
Supply Chain
- medi GmbH & Co. KG 德國輔具品牌，法說資料列為杏一引進代理產品之一；非台股掛牌公司。
- ABENA A/S 丹麥環保照護品品牌，法說資料列為杏一引進代理產品之一；非台股掛牌公司。
- 韓國營養品／食品集團供應商 法說摘要提及引進韓國大型食品集團營養品，但未揭露可完全確認的正式公司名稱；非台股掛牌或未確認是否掛牌。
- 醫療器材、照護耗材、保健食品與自有品牌供應商 杏一銷售醫療照護、生技保健、健康護理、復健輔具與居家保健品，供應端包含國內外品牌商與製造商；多數未逐一揭露，故不臆測台股代號。
- 醫院與醫療院所通路 杏一以醫院院內/院外門市與醫院商場服務急性照護需求；合作醫院多未逐一揭露且多非台股掛牌公司。
- 社區型門市與健保藥局顧客 下游為慢性病、居家照護、保健與長照需求消費者；非掛牌公司。
- 會員與線上通路使用者 公司 2025/12 會員總數約 425 萬，透過 App、LINE、官網、電商與門市 OMO 導流銷售；非掛牌公司。
- 長照與居家照護族群 受惠高齡化、長照 3.0、輔具租賃與居家環境改善需求；屬終端應用與消費族群。
Competitors
- 大樹醫藥股份有限公司 6469 台股上櫃連鎖藥局與醫藥零售通路，與杏一在社區藥局、保健與醫療照護商品通路競爭。
- 佑全藥品股份有限公司 6929 台股掛牌連鎖藥局/醫藥零售通路，與杏一在社區藥局與保健照護零售市場競爭。
- 諾貝兒寶貝股份有限公司 6844 台股掛牌藥局與母嬰/保健零售通路，與杏一在藥局、保健與部分照護商品競爭。
- 盛弘醫藥股份有限公司 8403 台股上櫃醫療服務與藥局/醫藥服務相關公司，與杏一在醫療院所周邊服務、醫藥與健康通路有部分競合。
- 優盛醫學科技股份有限公司 4121 台股上櫃醫療器材公司，並非純零售通路，但在醫療器材與居家照護產品端與杏一銷售品類有重疊。
- 寶島光學科技股份有限公司 5312 台股上櫃健康/視光零售通路，與杏一不是完全同業，但同屬健康照護零售與門市服務型業態。
- 敏成健康科技股份有限公司 台股上櫃醫療耗材與健康照護相關公司，與杏一在部分醫療耗材/健康照護供應或通路領域具可比性。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.