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4401

東隆興 Textiles As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 東隆興 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 75Quality 35Growth 68Momentum 23Chips 58

Is 東隆興 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 36th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 44th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 63th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.32
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金-竹科 holds 393 lots
  • sellers have 181 lots left, ~115 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-竹科 has accumulated 393 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦-台北 peaked at 182 lots, has sold 64%, 65 left, ~12 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.37pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.25pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -50 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-竹科元大-府城凱基-城中第一金國泰-敦南華南永昌-台中
Distributing
富邦-台北凱基-站前亞東玉山證券第一金-安和富邦-虎尾
Desks
own scale
元大-台北兆豐-彰化華南永昌-中正國泰-館前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-竹科 +393
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-府城 +265
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-城中 +198
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金 +125
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +115
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-台中 +99
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 富邦-台北 65 left
    sold 64%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 23 left
    sold 64%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 亞東 23 left
    sold 63%· ~115 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 5 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 第一金-安和 9 left
    sold 76%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-虎尾 20 left
    sold 35%· ~18 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-台北 -319
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-彰化 -293
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-中正 -254
    unclassified
  • 國泰-館前 -211
    unclassified
Still selling 181 lots ~115 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +695 absorbed / -133 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

66 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.7%, Sample 64, Median +2.22%, Excess +3.38%, Beat mkt rate 59.4%；60-day: Win 57.8%, Sample 64, Median +6.3%, Excess +8.79%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；120-day: Win 50.8%, Sample 63, Median +1.88%, Excess +15.12%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%

120 days after: historical avg +18.59%

20-day +4.02%
60-day +11.82%
120-day +18.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.7%
57.8%
50.8%
Sample
64
64
63
Median
+2.22%
+6.3%
+1.88%
Excess
+3.38%
+8.79%
+15.12%
Beat mkt rate
59.4%
56.2%
50.8%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.59%, beat the market by 15.12 pts; win rate 50.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 131+2.8% -4.1% 19.1% -42.1%
20-40 482+0.3% -7.2% 38.2% -20%
40-60 415-16.6% -16.5% 18.1% -38.4%
60-80 You are here835+4.2% -8.4% 38.2% -10.1%
80-100 1001+1.1% -16% 32.3% -13.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.65, at the 63.2th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-5.9%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -22.2%
78d
-1.9%
Win rate 44.4% Excess -12.4%
207d
+11.6%
Win rate 37.1% Excess +2.8%
940d
60-day momentum down
-2%
Win rate 30.2% Excess -4.7%
344d
Now
-5.8%
Win rate 43.7% Excess -16.8%
657d
+2.3%
Win rate 38.1% Excess -7.3%
758d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 657 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.8%, win rate 43.7%, lagged the market by 16.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.27%, win rate 70.6%, beating the market by +14.72 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.92%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by +0.47 pts on average.

What does 東隆興 do? Company profile

紡織纖維 上櫃

Overview

東隆興業股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股，股票代號4401，市場別為櫃買中心上櫃。公司創業於1960年，公司登記成立日多數股市資料列為1961/08/14，1996/05/09於櫃買中心掛牌上櫃，總公司位於新北市板橋區三民路二段31號19樓。董事長為游志成，總經理為游榮利；實收資本額約新台幣12.2692012億元，已發行普通股約122,692,012股。公司法說資料列示生產廠區包括台灣桃園廠、台灣彰化廠，以及越南2個車縫線生產廠區。主要股東名單依公司股東結構頁面113年04月15日資料，包括游榮杰5.22%、游榮利5.19%、懋嘉投資有限公司4.11%、琦美興業股份有限公司3.99%、中國信託受東隆興業員工持股綜合信託專戶3.26%、巨存宏股份有限公司3.12%、鄭漢淮2.76%、游志成2.39%、游淑慧1.78%、游淑華1.75%。員工規模未在公司官網頁面直接查得，外部金融資料曾列示約797人，需以最新年報為準。

Business

公司主要從事人造纖維縫線、織造用紗、混合線及相關線類紡織品製造、銷售與批發。公司定位為高階人造纖維加工紗與尼龍66線紗供應商，產品包括前染色紗、延伸假撚紗DTY、空氣複合紗ATY、特殊複合紗、色紗、車縫用線，以及以Nylon 66、Nylon 6、Micro Polyester、Certified Recycled Polyester等原料開發的功能性紗線。2024年營收結構外部資料列示布紗約91%、其他約9%；2025年10月法說會依產品應用分類列示，健身運動與lifestyle服飾用占比大於42%，戶外登山運動服飾大於22%，休閒服飾大於18%，高爾夫與網球服飾大於10%，內睡衣與泳裝用料大於5%，車縫用線與其他大於3%。商業模式上，公司以B2B方式提供紗線給織布廠、布料廠與成衣供應鏈，並與國際品牌、上游供應商及下游客戶共同開發機能性紗線；終端應用涵蓋瑜珈、健身、慢跑、戶外、登山、高爾夫、網球、內睡衣、泳裝、牛仔與休閒服飾等。法說會列示產品應用品牌包括Lululemon、Athleta、Fabletics、Alo、Under Armour、Vuori、Aerie、Outdoor Voice、Nike、Prana、Adidas、Jordan Golf、Arc'teryx、The North Face、Columbia、GoreTex、Patagonia、Jockey、Decathlon、Wacoal、Duluth、Aritzia、Rhone等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以高附加價值機能紗、色紗、環保再生纖維與生活風格運動服飾需求為核心。公司2025年10月法說會指出將持續投入產能擴充與生產設備升級，開發Recycle PA6、PA66、PET及廢棄衣料回收纖維；環保再生纖維出貨占比已由2018年的2.4%提升至2024年的13.5%，並規劃以製程改善、太陽光電與儲能系統等降低產品碳排，目標2030年溫室氣體排放量較2018至2020年平均基準減少20%。產業動能包括國際品牌對機能、舒適、低碳與可追溯材料需求提高，瑜珈、健身、戶外與lifestyle服飾持續採用高階尼龍與複合加工紗；公司與品牌商、上游供應商、下游客戶共同開發，有助提高切入門檻。外部新聞報導公司已打入Jordan Golf供應鏈，並與Alo、Vuori等新興品牌合作開發，管理層看好色紗應用與產能利用率改善。主要風險包括全球消費景氣與通膨壓力、關稅政策、美國與歐洲終端服飾需求波動、匯率波動、尼龍66/尼龍6/聚酯等原料價格波動、品牌庫存循環、下游客戶集中度、同業低價競爭，以及環保再生纖維認證與品質穩定性的執行風險。2026至2028的具體財務預測公司並未發布，相關成長判斷屬研究推估，需持續追蹤月營收、毛利率、再生纖維出貨占比、色紗產能利用率與資本支出執行情況。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 遠東新世紀股份有限公司 1402 上游化纖與原絲供應鏈關係；外部產業分析指出東隆興曾向遠東新採購POY/FDY原絲，屬台股上市公司。
  • 力鵬企業股份有限公司 1447 上游尼龍與加工絲原料供應鏈關係；外部產業分析指出東隆興曾向力鵬採購POY/FDY原絲，屬台股上市公司。
  • 東麗株式會社 Toray Industries 日本上市化纖大廠；公司沿革資料提及早期在日本東麗技術協助下建立製線基礎，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國際原料與機械設備供應商 公司官網說明與國際原料和機械廠商合作引進先進技術，具體名單未完整揭露。
Downstream
  • 儒鴻企業股份有限公司 1476 下游織布、布料與成衣供應鏈客戶；外部產業分析指出東隆興為儒鴻重要供應商之一，屬台股上市公司。
  • 瑞宜纖維股份有限公司 下游織布/布料相關客戶；外部產業分析列為主要銷貨對象之一，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • Nike, Inc. 終端品牌應用客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • lululemon athletica inc. 終端品牌應用客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • adidas AG 終端品牌應用客戶；德國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • The North Face / Columbia / Patagonia等戶外品牌 公司法說會列示之戶外登山運動服飾應用品牌，多為海外品牌或集團旗下品牌，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 宏遠興業股份有限公司 1460 台股上市紡織纖維同業；外部產業分析列為東隆興國內主要競爭廠商之一。
  • 力麗企業股份有限公司 1444 台股上市紡織纖維同業；外部產業分析列為國內主要競爭廠商之一。
  • 力鵬企業股份有限公司 1447 台股上市尼龍與紡織纖維同業，亦可能同時為上游供應鏈公司；外部產業分析列為競爭廠商之一。
  • 聚隆纖維股份有限公司 1466 台股上市尼龍絲、加工絲及紡織纖維同業；屬可比競爭公司，但本次未查得直接點名與東隆興競爭的公司官方資料。
  • 中國大陸與東南亞加工絲/機能紗廠商 非特定台股掛牌公司；主要競爭壓力來自低成本產能與機能性紗線技術追趕。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.