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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 4420 光明. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=4420
4420
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 光明 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 29th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 74th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -24% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 統一-員林 has accumulated 170 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 元大-豐原站前 peaked at 24 lots, has sold 33%, 16 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.06pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.41pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -96 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 統一-員林 +170
- 凱基-城中 +70
- 元富-大裕 +62
- 玉山-高雄 +52
- 富邦-仁愛 +48
- 土銀-新竹 +36
Distributing
- 元大-豐原站前 16 left
- 富邦-苗栗 9 left
- 富邦-新竹 9 left
- 富邦-公益 11 left
- 永豐金-復興 6 left
- 玉山-台南 4 left
Desks
- 富邦-中壢 -106
- 福邦證券 -87
- 台新-大裕 -60
- 臺銀-高雄 -57
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 597 | +9.9% | +2.7% | 58% | -32.3% |
| 20-40 | 481 | +17.1% | +11% | 60.7% | +13.7% |
| 40-60 | 379 | +40.4% | +17.5% | 63.6% | +25.6% |
| 60-80 | 358 | +21.5% | +10.5% | 64.5% | +13.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 617 | +77.7% | +27.8% | 87% | +54.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 46.91, at the 89.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 352 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 38%, win rate 80.1%, beat the market by 21.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.7%, win rate 65.8%, beating the market by +11.09 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3%, win rate 67.9%, beating the market by -0.71 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.13%, win rate 76.5%, beating the market by +0.14 pts on average.
What does 光明 do? Company profile
Overview
光明絲織廠股份有限公司，股票代號 4420，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，產業別為紡織纖維。公司成立於 1966/06/22，公開發行日為 1997/11/13，興櫃日為 2002/01/02，上櫃日為 2002/04/18。總公司位於台北市內湖區瑞光路607號7樓，龜山廠位於桃園市龜山區宏洲街29號。董事長為詹正田，總經理及發言人為李業振。實收資本額約新台幣404,550仟元，已發行普通股40,455,000股，無特別股、無海外存託憑證。113年度年報列示 114/03/31 從業員工132人；113年度全年員工合計133人，平均年齡45.22歲、平均服務年資9.10年。主要股權與治理關係方面，法人董事宜進實業持有15,586,193股、持股38.53%，為公司重要控制股東；董事李業振持股725,000股、1.79%；法人董事方舟資產管理有限公司持股700,165股、1.73%。宜進實業之主要股東包括億東纖維、詹正田、欣懋投資、億進實業、集盛實業等，顯示光明屬宜進/宏洲/關係企業紡織集團的一環。113年度營業收入淨額為835,597仟元，稅前淨利288,940仟元，每股稅後純益6.18元；但部分獲利與業外項目相關，需與本業營運分開判讀。
Business
公司主要從事聚酯加工絲之生產及銷售，並兼營加工收入、租賃收入及不動產相關業務。113年度營收結構為：聚酯加工絲824,626仟元、占98.69%；加工收入1,212仟元、占0.14%；租賃收入9,610仟元、占1.15%；其他149仟元、占0.02%。112年度營收688,933仟元，其中聚酯加工絲占94.91%、租賃收入占4.56%，113年度本業聚酯加工絲比重進一步提高。主要產品為細丹高條紗與功能性紗線，銷售以針織為主、平織為輔，應用於時尚衣著、環保再生聚酯用布、戶外休閒運動用布、新娘禮服、高級商標、裡布、都會服飾用布、鞋材用布、家飾用布、醫療類、車用材料及工業用織布等。產製流程為採購聚酯原絲 POY 及加工絲油，經假撚機製成加工絲，再經 DTY 檢驗、外觀檢驗、編檢、染判、包裝、入庫與銷售。113年度銷售地區全部為台灣內銷，銷售額835,597仟元，外銷為0；112年度內銷占98.43%、外銷占1.57%。主要商業模式為向上游關係企業及供應商採購聚酯原絲，透過假撚與加工技術做出差異化、機能性、環保性加工絲，再銷售給母公司宜進、宜新實業及其他織布、成衣、品牌供應鏈客戶。113年度前兩大銷貨客戶為宜進105,675仟元、占12.65%，宜新58,686仟元、占7.02%，其他客戶占80.33%，單一客戶未逾25%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以「機能性、環保再生、差異化小量多樣、供應鏈整合」為主軸。公司113年度年報對114年度營業計畫指出，原物料行情暴起暴落、基本工資及電費調漲壓縮利潤，因此將加強高附加價值產品、提升品質、整合集團資源、降低成本、研發新技術與新產品線，並尋求策略聯盟。成長動能包括：一、功能性加工絲與環保加工絲需求提升，品牌商對永續與機能性紡織品需求增加；二、公司已完成3台新型 TMT 假撚機驗收並投入生產，有助品質、生產速度、產能與節能；三、持續開發吸濕排汗、抗菌防臭、抗紫外線、彈性纖維、環保紗、37.5火山灰紗、新合纖與複合織物；四、打入品牌商供應鏈，與大型服飾成衣供應商上下游合作；五、導入 ERP 與自動化設備，提升採購、生產、銷售、內控效率。產業趨勢方面，台灣紡織業持續往機能性布料、循環再生、低碳製程、供應鏈透明化、AI/智慧製造與數位布料發展，對具研發與彈性客製能力的中游加工絲業者有利。風險與挑戰包括：一、中國、越南、東南亞產能過剩與低價競爭；二、PTA、EG、聚酯原絲受國際油價與石化景氣牽動；三、主要進貨高度集中於宏洲纖維，113年度占進貨淨額97.07%，雖為關聯企業且供貨穩定，但仍有供應集中風險；四、台灣勞動力不足、工資與電價上升；五、全球貿易政策、關稅、區域經濟整合、品牌下單保守與終端庫存循環；六、環保法規與碳足跡揭露要求提高。2026至2028年公司未提供公開量化財測，因此中長期展望屬基於年報策略與產業趨勢之合理推估。
Supply Chain
- 宏洲纖維工業股份有限公司 1413 主要聚酯原絲供應商及關聯企業；113年度供應金額589,129仟元，占光明全年進貨淨額97.07%，為高度集中之上游來源。
- 臺南紡織股份有限公司 1440 聚酯原絲等原料供應商；113年度供應金額2,039仟元，占進貨淨額0.34%。
- PTA、EG、聚酯原絲及加工絲油供應鏈 年報說明聚酯加工絲上游為石化原料業及纖維業，PTA與EG受國際油價影響；未逐一揭露所有供應商名稱。
- 宜進實業股份有限公司 1457 母公司及主要銷貨客戶；113年度銷貨105,675仟元，占光明全年銷貨淨額12.65%，下游用途包含紡織布料與成衣供應鏈。
- 宜新實業股份有限公司 4440 主要銷貨客戶；113年度銷貨58,686仟元，占光明全年銷貨淨額7.02%，屬台股上市紡織纖維公司。
- 國內織布、成衣、鞋材、車用材料、醫療材料、戶外休閒運動服飾及家飾用布客戶 年報未逐一揭露名稱；113年度其他客戶合計671,236仟元，占銷貨淨額80.33%，產品應用於針織、平織、成衣、鞋材、車用、醫療與家飾等領域。
Competitors
- 力麗企業股份有限公司 1444 年報選為聚酯加工絲/聚酯纖維同業比較公司；113年度營收8,269,876仟元，主要產品包含加工絲、瓶用酯粒、聚酯原絲及聚酯粒等。
- 台灣富綢纖維股份有限公司 1454 年報選為同業比較公司；主要營業項目為特多龍布及特多龍紗，113年度營收1,623,569仟元。
- 新昕纖維股份有限公司 4406 年報選為同業比較公司；上櫃紡織纖維公司，主要產品為特多龍加工絲，113年度營收447,920仟元。
- 中國大陸、越南、東南亞聚酯加工絲與紡織業者 年報指出大陸、越南與東南亞大量投入紡織業，造成產能過剩、競價激烈與出口壓力；多數非台股掛牌或未具名。
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.