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4502

健信 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 健信 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 健信 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 26th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 12.7% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.44

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
凱基-市政 holds 767 lots
sellers have 14 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 凱基-市政 has accumulated 767 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 第一金-自由 peaked at 27 lots, has sold 56%, 12 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.92pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.51pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

凱基-市政華南永昌國泰-敦南中國信託-高雄華南永昌-板橋富邦-岡山

Distributing

第一金-自由兆豐-松德新光-桃園玉山-板橋永豐金-中正國票-中和

Desks

own scale

群益金鼎台新-台中群益金鼎-西松富邦-建國

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

凱基-市政 +767

sold 0%
華南永昌 +271

sold 1%
國泰-敦南 +182

sold 0%· still adding
中國信託-高雄 +94

sold 0%· still adding
華南永昌-板橋 +60

sold 0%· still adding
富邦-岡山 +32

sold 0%

Distributing

第一金-自由 12 left

sold 56%· paused recently
兆豐-松德 5 left

sold 69%· ~6 sessions to clear
新光-桃園 3 left

sold 79%· paused recently
玉山-板橋 9 left

sold 31%· paused recently
永豐金-中正 3 left

sold 73%· ~4 sessions to clear
國票-中和 3 left

sold 70%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

群益金鼎 -353

unclassified
台新-台中 -255

unclassified
群益金鼎-西松 -89

unclassified
富邦-建國 -75

unclassified

Still selling 14 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +228 absorbed / -24 sold buyers slightly ahead

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.67%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

54 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +23.04%

20-day +4.03%

60-day +13.55%

120-day +23.04%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

51%

52%

51%

Sample

Median

+0.13%

+0.68%

+0.82%

Excess

+1.78%

+7.4%

+13.97%

Beat mkt rate

45.1%

44%

38.8%

Over 49 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.04%, beat the market by 13.97 pts; win rate 51%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data

20-40 -15%

40-60 -4%

60-80 -29.8%

80-100 -55.4% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	0	Insufficient data
20-40	237	-15%	-28.3%	26.6%	-20.3%
40-60	108	-4%	-4.8%	46.3%	-13.5%
60-80	182	-29.8%	-30.4%	2.7%	-120%
80-100 You are here	168	-55.4%	-55.2%	0%	-161.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 95.79, at the 80.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Insufficient data
(9d)

-27%

Win rate 0% Excess -32.6%

35d

Now

-21.3%

Win rate 17.8% Excess -87.6%

101d

60-day momentum down

-17%

Win rate 0.8% Excess -13.6%

128d

-14.6%

Win rate 7.1% Excess -18%

239d

-11.2%

Win rate 25.5% Excess -45.4%

294d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 101 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 21.3%, win rate 17.8%, lagged the market by 87.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.78%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +7.05 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.96%, win rate 28%, beating the market by -9.65 pts on average.

What does 健信 do? Company profile

電機機械；汽車零組件；汽車輪圈上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

4502 對應證券為櫃買中心上櫃普通股「健信」，英文簡稱 RT，公司全名為健信科技工業股份有限公司。公司前身為源恆工業股份有限公司，成立於 1978/06/20，1995/12/12 上櫃，2015 年 10 月變更為現名。總部/公司地址為彰化縣線西鄉彰濱東一路 3 號。董事長為吳明燦，總經理亦為吳明燦。依 Yahoo 股市與年報資料，實收資本額為新台幣 574,696,860 元，已發行普通股 57,469,686 股。依公司 114 年股東會年報，截至 2025/05/23 從業員工合計 298 人；2024 年度為 339 人、2023 年度為 383 人。主要股東依 2025/04/28 年報揭露包含嶸毅投資股份有限公司 21.88%、華豐橡膠工業股份有限公司 12.81%、丘世健 11.80%、群益金鼎託管群益證券香港群益託管有限公司 3.37%、石呈澤 2.51%、張明峯 2.49%、蘇淑貞 1.57% 等。公司生產據點包含彰濱廠、楊梅廠與大陸蘇州廠；轉投資/關係企業包含英屬維京群島源福企業有限公司、恆毅投資、健鼎投資、Rosta Performance Group Inc、健信國際（香港）、Rosta Int'L Ltd、蘇州源成鋁製品製造有限公司、蘇州源成汽車零件有限公司、山東健瑞鋁業有限公司等。

Business

健信為專業汽車輪圈製造廠，主要從事鋼圈、鋁合金輪圈、鎂合金輪圈之製造、加工、進出口及銷售，也涵蓋鋼板加工、輪圈機械、金屬原料加工、汽車轉向系統、輪胎進出口、輪圈與輪胎組裝加工、焊接材料/焊接機械，以及年報列示之航太零組件製造加工銷售。2024 年（民國 113 年）合併營收為新台幣 1,396,049 仟元，產品結構為鍛圈 802,881 仟元、占 57.51%；傾鑄圈 206,478 仟元、占 14.79%；鋁圈 176,422 仟元、占 12.64%；鋼圈 117,820 仟元、占 8.44%；其他（加工收入及出售物料收入）92,448 仟元、占 6.62%。銷售地區以外銷為主，2024 年內銷占 14.93%，外銷亞洲占 26.88%、美洲占 24.28%、歐洲占 32.86%、其他占 1.05%。商業模式以 OEM/ODM 與 AM 售服市場並行，年報稱目前以 OEM/ODM 市場為主，業務依地區及客戶屬性分為 AM/OEM 銷售區域，並採直接外銷與間接貿易並重。主要終端應用包括高強度汽車與拖車鋼製輪圈、ATV、房車、超跑、SUV、MPV、電動車、冬季用輪圈等。公司官網揭露過去服務 Ford、Nissan、Toyota、Suzuki、Subaru，蘇州廠擴展後服務 GM、Holden、Karma、Volvo、Polestar 及北美售後市場。2024 年主要客戶年報以客戶 A/B/C/D 匿名揭露，其中客戶 D 占 2024 年銷貨淨額 22.95%，客戶 C 占 10.20%；2025 年第一季客戶 D 占 21.19%，客戶 A 占 10.54%，顯示仍有單一客戶占比較高情形。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年至 2028 年展望以公司年報揭露之 2025 年營運計畫及產業趨勢外推，確定性以 2025 年最高、2026-2028 屬中低確信推估。公司 2025 年經營方針為持續開拓新市場與新客戶、利用現有 OEM 生產優勢推廣售服市場、提升產品競爭力以拓展市場占有率；2025 年預計銷售數量為鋼圈 210,630 個、鋁圈 164,614 個、鎂圈 2,146 個。成長動能包括車輛輕量化、電動車與高階車款對輕量化鋁鍛/鎂合金輪圈的需求、公司由低毛利低壓鑄造轉向較高毛利的傾斜鑄造與鍛造輪圈、導入 6061/6082 鋁鍛材料與鎂 AZ80 輕合金、發展多樣性表面處理工藝、開發高附加價值 OEM 汽車品牌廠並取得工廠稽核認證。中長期策略包含維持 AM 與 OEM 市場、深耕歐美日 OEM 新車需求、逐步降低低單價/低技術門檻產品占比、導入自動化設備、精實生產、降低庫存與縮短交期。產業趨勢方面，年報指出鋁合金與鎂合金等輕合金輪圈為車輛輪圈主流與未來趨勢，電動車、自駕車發展與新能源車市場可支撐輕量化零組件需求。主要風險與挑戰包括：原物料鋁錠/鋁棒/鋼板價格波動，台灣缺乏上游鋁合金原料且依賴進口；匯率波動（人民幣、美元、台幣）影響競爭力；貿易保護主義、中美貿易戰、俄烏戰爭與地緣政治風險；北美市場與特定客戶銷售集中；中國大陸廠商以原料、人工與土地成本優勢形成競爭壓力；低碳與環保法規可能推升原物料、能源與碳成本。2026-2028 年若公司能取得更多高階 OEM 認證、擴大鋁鍛與鎂合金輪圈產品比重，營收結構與毛利率有改善機會；但年報未提供 2026-2028 量化財測，故不應視為公司指引。

Supply Chain

Upstream

鋁錠/鋁棒供應商 A、C、D 年報揭露鋁錠/鋁棒為主要原料，供應商以 A、C、D 匿名列示，品質良好且供貨穩定；未揭露實際公司名稱，無法判定是否為台股上市櫃公司。
鋼板供應商 B、E 年報揭露鋼板為主要原料，供應商以 B、E 匿名列示，品質良好且供貨穩定；未揭露實際公司名稱，無法判定是否為台股上市櫃公司。
國外鋁合金原料來源年報指出台灣缺少上游鋁合金原料，鋁合金來源主要依賴國外進口，供應國家包括阿拉伯聯合大公國、俄羅斯、澳大利亞等；為原料來源地而非特定掛牌公司。

Downstream

Ford 公司官網揭露早期服務台灣 Ford；Ford 為海外車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Nissan 公司官網揭露早期服務台灣 Nissan；Nissan 為日本車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Toyota 公司官網揭露早期服務台灣 Toyota；Toyota 為日本上市車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Suzuki 公司官網揭露服務日本車廠 Suzuki；Suzuki 為日本上市車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Subaru 公司官網揭露服務日本車廠 Subaru；Subaru 為日本上市車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
GM 公司官網揭露蘇州廠業務擴展後服務 GM；GM 為美國上市車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Holden 公司官網揭露服務 Holden；Holden 為海外品牌，非台股上市櫃公司。
Karma 公司官網揭露服務 Karma；Karma 為海外車廠/品牌，非台股上市櫃公司。
Volvo 公司官網揭露服務 Volvo；Volvo Cars 為海外車廠，非台股上市櫃公司。
Polestar 公司官網揭露服務 Polestar；Polestar 為海外電動車品牌，非台股上市櫃公司。
北美售後市場（AM）客戶公司官網與年報指出產品服務北美售後市場，年報並稱產品銷售及新市場開發大部分集中北美地區；未揭露具名通路或客戶公司。
年報匿名主要客戶 A/C/D 2024 年報以匿名方式揭露主要客戶，客戶 D 占 2024 年銷貨淨額 22.95%、客戶 C 占 10.20%；2025 年第一季客戶 D 占 21.19%、客戶 A 占 10.54%，皆未揭露實名。

Competitors

巧新科技工業股份有限公司 1563 年報列為台灣具代表性的輪圈廠與 OEM/ODM 鍛造鋁輪圈競爭者；台股上市公司。
六和機械股份有限公司年報與 MoneyDJ 列為國內輪圈同業；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
民享工業股份有限公司年報與 MoneyDJ 列為國內輪圈同業；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
富成金屬科技股份有限公司年報提到本公司、巧新及富成等致力於鍛造技術生產方式創新突破；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
Alcoa 年報與 MoneyDJ 列為國外輪圈/鋁業競爭者，美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
Otto Fuchs 年報與 MoneyDJ 列為歐洲鍛造鋁輪圈主要廠商，非台股上市櫃公司。
中信戴卡年報與 MoneyDJ 列為中國大陸主要輪圈競爭者，非台股上市櫃公司。
富海、立格、富華、萬道、上越等 AM 輪圈廠年報列為專門供應售服市場（AM）的廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.