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5274

信驊 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 信驊 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 99Growth 88Momentum 93Chips 85

Is 信驊 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 20.9%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 68.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.13
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 美商高盛 holds 398 lots
  • sellers have 71 lots left, ~54 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +111% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 398 lots since the start (sold 3%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 花旗環球 peaked at 168 lots, has sold 67%, 56 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.18pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.14pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -52 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利美林中國信託新加坡商瑞銀
Distributing
花旗環球凱基凱基-台北兆豐證券玉山證券國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
永豐金-匯立港商麥格理元大證券富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +398
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +269
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +259
    sold 22%
  • 美林 +122
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +97
    sold 22%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +66
    sold 13%· still adding

Distributing

  • 花旗環球 56 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 凱基 74 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 47 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 兆豐證券 54 left
    sold 33%· ~54 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 17 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 13 left
    sold 32%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金-匯立 -566
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -297
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -202
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -185
    unclassified
Still selling 71 lots ~54 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +223 absorbed / -20 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -46 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 68.73%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

106 historical occurrences (since 2013-04-30)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.9%, Sample 95, Median +2.75%, Excess +1.64%, Beat mkt rate 53.7%；60-day: Win 72%, Sample 93, Median +9.15%, Excess +7.9%, Beat mkt rate 64.5%；120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 91, Median +25.91%, Excess +14.83%, Beat mkt rate 68.1%

120 days after: historical avg +21.63%

20-day +3.08%
60-day +11.7%
120-day +21.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.9%
72%
71.4%
Sample
95
93
91
Median
+2.75%
+9.15%
+25.91%
Excess
+1.64%
+7.9%
+14.83%
Beat mkt rate
53.7%
64.5%
68.1%

Over 91 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.63%, beat the market by 14.83 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 historical occurrences (since 2013-09-27)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 57, Median +2.17%, Excess +0.83%, Beat mkt rate 49.1%；60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 57, Median +10.35%, Excess +5.68%, Beat mkt rate 56.1%；120-day: Win 80.7%, Sample 57, Median +22.73%, Excess +14.72%, Beat mkt rate 75.4%

120 days after: historical avg +22.72%

20-day +2.2%
60-day +9.78%
120-day +22.72%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.6%
68.4%
80.7%
Sample
57
57
57
Median
+2.17%
+10.35%
+22.73%
Excess
+0.83%
+5.68%
+14.72%
Beat mkt rate
49.1%
56.1%
75.4%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.72%, beat the market by 14.72 pts; win rate 80.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 35+111.7% +104% 100% +93.6%
20-40 115+97.7% +84.5% 100% +74.9%
40-60 247+106.5% +62% 100% +78.3%
60-80 431+80.9% +61.8% 97% +50.8%
80-100 You are here1391+28.9% +23.3% 69.9% +14.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 156.84, at the 99.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(10d)
+29.8%
Win rate 96.7% Excess +19.2%
214d
Now
+25.6%
Win rate 76.7% Excess +14%
1356d
60-day momentum down
+46.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +34%
91d
+43.8%
Win rate 97.7% Excess +28.8%
215d
+16.1%
Win rate 67.5% Excess +13.7%
453d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1356 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 25.6%, win rate 76.7%, beat the market by 14%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.4%, win rate 64.9%, beating the market by +6.68 pts on average.

What does 信驊 do? Company profile

半導體業／IC設計／伺服器遠端管理晶片 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

5274 對應信驊科技股份有限公司，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司創立於2004年11月15日，總部位於新竹市東區公道五路三段1號4樓之1，2013年4月30日上櫃。公司為Fabless無晶圓廠IC設計公司，核心定位是雲端企業與伺服器管理SoC解決方案供應商。董事長暨總經理為林鴻明；2026年前官網經營團隊並列業務副總經理關超成、研發副總經理黃勃為等。Yahoo股市資料顯示股本約新台幣378,026,850元、已發行普通股37,802,685股；Goodinfo資料顯示資本額約3.78億元。2024年年報揭露截至2025年3月29日員工126人，其中研發88人、業務及管理38人；2024年底員工124人。主要法人股東與董事相關法人包括豐驊投資、賢華投資、盛驊投資；年報揭露豐驊投資主要股東為林鴻明64.94%、張裕華28.20%，賢華投資主要股東為瞿瑞華50.51%、余明長22.58%等，盛驊投資主要股東為林鴻明51.00%、張裕華47.00%。PChome董監持股資料另顯示豐驊投資持股約5,253千股、約13.90%，賢華投資約593千股、約1.57%。2024年合併營收6,459,666千元、年增106.35%，稅後淨利2,571,308千元，EPS 68.04元；2026年第一季營收31.47億元、年增52.38%，EPS 37.41元，創單季新高。

Business

信驊主要產品為伺服器遠端管理晶片BMC SoC，並延伸至BIC橋接控制器、PFR／PRoT安全晶片、I/O Expander、PC影音延伸晶片與Cupola360全景影像處理晶片／軟體方案。BMC位於伺服器、網路設備或儲存設備主機板上，用於遠端監控硬體感測器、BIOS／UEFI更新、序列或虛擬KVM存取、電源循環與事件紀錄，是資料中心維運的關鍵控制晶片。公司年報指出2024年BMC出貨約1,300萬顆，其中約200萬顆供應AI伺服器、約1,100萬顆用於通用伺服器，估計全球伺服器遠端管理晶片市占約七成。產品營收結構方面，MoneyDJ整理2024年伺服器管理晶片約占95%、PC影音延伸晶片約占4%；官方年報亦稱主要產品多媒體積體電路占營收九成以上。商業模式為自行研發SoC、韌體與相關IP，委託設計服務公司與晶圓代工、封裝測試廠量產，再銷售給伺服器ODM／EMS、品牌伺服器廠商或由大型CSP／社群平台指定的供應鏈。2024年銷售區域為台灣46.80%、亞洲50.48%、歐美2.72%。公司年報揭露2024年銷貨逾10%客戶以匿名A、B、C、D表示，分別占22.20%、12.15%、11.06%、10.07%；直接客戶多為終端品牌或CSP指定之伺服器代工廠，終端應用涵蓋通用伺服器、AI伺服器、交換器、儲存設備、DPU、Power Shelf、CDU散熱／冷卻設備、數位看板、AV over IP、智慧工廠、智慧城市與全景巡檢。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以AI伺服器、通用伺服器換機、資料中心擴張與每台伺服器晶片價值提升為主軸。2025年：公司年報預期北美主要雲端業者提高資本支出，AI基礎設施與資料中心投資推升高階AI伺服器與整體伺服器需求；公司聚焦第八代BMC AST2700量產、I/O Expander AST1700搭售、PFR／Bridge IC等產品組合，以提升每台伺服器content value。市場報導顯示2025全年營收約90.85億元、年增約40.64%，但該數字需以公司公告與公開資訊觀測站為準。2026年：2026年第一季營收31.47億元、EPS 37.41元；公司第二季展望曾估合併營收34億至36億元、毛利率67%至68%。2026年需求由AI訓練與推論共同帶動，AST2600仍是主力，AST2700開始接棒；報導指出訂單能見度延伸至2027年，短期瓶頸不在訂單而在晶圓、封測、BT載板等供應鏈產能。2027年：外資與市場報導預期GPU與AI機架產品延續擴張，AST2700放量、ASP較前代上升，BMC在AI伺服器、交換器、儲存、DPU與散熱模組等管理節點滲透率提高；部分訂單已排至2027年屬市場報導，仍需後續公告驗證。2028年：較長期成長動能來自代理式AI、推論算力、CSP資本支出、企業／邊緣AI部署、資料中心在地化與安全法規，並透過BMC、BIC、PFR、I/O Expander組合提高單機價值；外資曾上修2026至2028傳統BMC出貨量預估至2,570萬、3,490萬、4,370萬顆，但屬外部預估而非公司財測。主要風險包括大型CSP資本支出週期波動、AI伺服器機櫃級設計與散熱造成組裝及導入時程不確定、晶圓／封測／BT載板供應受限、進貨集中、匯率波動、專業IC設計人才爭奪、新唐／Renesas／GigaDevice／Axiado及CSP自研BMC或安全控制晶片競爭、估值過高導致股價波動、地緣政治與出口管制、資安與客戶機密保護風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 晶圓代工與設計服務供應商A 2024年年報匿名揭露之主要進貨供應商A，進貨金額2,149,818千元、占進貨淨額96.13%；公司未揭露實名，屬設計服務／晶圓代工／Turnkey供應鏈。
  • 晶圓代工與設計服務供應商B 2024年年報匿名揭露之供應商B，進貨金額33,022千元、占1.48%；公司未揭露實名。
  • 封裝測試廠／OSAT供應商 信驊為Fabless公司，量產後交由封測廠封裝測試；2026年市場報導指出公司將導入第二家OSAT量產，但實際公司名稱未公開。
  • BT載板與IC基板供應鏈 BMC封裝與AI伺服器需求擴張涉及BT載板等材料供應；市場報導提及供應鏈瓶頸，但公司未公開特定供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 伺服器ODM／EMS匿名客戶A 2024年年報匿名揭露之最大銷貨客戶，銷貨1,434,123千元、占22.20%；公司未揭露實名，性質為終端品牌或CSP指定之代工廠商。
  • 廣達電腦 2382 台股上市伺服器ODM／AI伺服器供應鏈公司，屬信驊BMC終端應用所在的下游產業；信驊年報未確認其為直接客戶。
  • 緯穎科技服務 6669 台股上市雲端資料中心與伺服器供應鏈公司，屬BMC下游應用生態；信驊年報未確認其為直接客戶。
  • 鴻海精密 2317 台股上市EMS／伺服器與AI伺服器組裝供應鏈公司，屬BMC下游應用生態；信驊年報未確認其為直接客戶。
  • 英業達 2356 台股上市伺服器ODM公司，屬信驊BMC終端應用所在的下游產業；信驊年報未確認其為直接客戶。
  • 緯創資通 3231 台股上市伺服器與AI伺服器供應鏈公司，屬BMC下游應用生態；信驊年報未確認其為直接客戶。
  • 大型雲端服務商與社群網路平台 終端需求來源，透過ODM Direct模式指定供應鏈並採購伺服器；多為美國上市或海外大型科技公司，公司年報未逐名揭露。

Competitors

  • 新唐科技 4919 台股上市IC設計公司，NPCM系列BMC為信驊主要台灣競爭者之一，近年切入OCP與AI伺服器BMC供應鏈。
  • 瑞薩電子 日本上市公司Renesas，市場資料與產業報告列為BMC或伺服器管理控制器競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • 兆易創新 中國A股上市GigaDevice，部分市場報導列為入門級BMC／MCU相關競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Axiado 未上市公司，主打整合BMC、安全根與AI推論的TCU路線，屬新型安全管理控制晶片競爭／替代方案。
  • CSP與品牌伺服器廠自研晶片 部分大型雲端服務商或伺服器品牌可能自研BMC或平台管理控制晶片，屬長期替代風險；多未公開或非台股掛牌。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.