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8489

三貝德 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三貝德 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 三貝德 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 65th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.7%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 92th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.3% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 52.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.26

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
凱基-內湖 holds 1,021 lots
sellers have 375 lots left, ~542 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -46% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 凱基-內湖 has accumulated 1,021 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 凱基-三峽 peaked at 549 lots, has sold 41%, 325 left, ~542 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.55pp, mid holders -4, retail +5.53pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -408 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

凱基-內湖台新-中壢群益金鼎-瑞豐國泰-敦南兆豐-新營永豐金-萬盛

Distributing

凱基-三峽國泰-新莊國泰-板橋華南永昌富邦-台北統一-金門

Desks

own scale

統一-敦南統一-仁愛統一-松江群益金鼎-萬華

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

凱基-內湖 +1,021

sold 0%
台新-中壢 +566

sold 0%· still adding
群益金鼎-瑞豐 +376

sold 0%
國泰-敦南 +262

sold 0%· still adding
兆豐-新營 +247

sold 0%· still adding
永豐金-萬盛 +217

sold 20%

Distributing

凱基-三峽 325 left

sold 41%· ~542 sessions to clear
國泰-新莊 135 left

sold 42%· paused recently
國泰-板橋 108 left

sold 29%· paused recently
華南永昌 11 left

sold 88%· paused recently
富邦-台北 34 left

sold 48%· ~340 sessions to clear
統一-金門 32 left

sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

統一-敦南 -1,006

unclassified
統一-仁愛 -924

unclassified
統一-松江 -707

unclassified
群益金鼎-萬華 -480

unclassified

Still selling 375 lots ~542 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +187 absorbed / -16 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -91 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 52.47%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

33 historical occurrences (since 2017-04-27)

120 days after: historical avg -7.92%

20-day +0.04%

60-day -2.52%

120-day -7.92%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

60.9%

38.1%

27.8%

Sample

Median

+1.75%

-4.69%

-19.53%

Excess

-2.35%

-8.83%

-13.48%

Beat mkt rate

47.8%

19%

22.2%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 7.92%, lagged the market by 13.48 pts; win rate 27.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data

20-40 Insufficient data

40-60 -30.9%

60-80 -32.2%

80-100 Insufficient data Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	0	Insufficient data
20-40	0	Insufficient data
40-60	97	-30.9%	-30.7%	0%	-75.1%
60-80	102	-32.2%	-35.5%	0%	-56.4%
80-100 You are here	18	Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 70.43, at the 94.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Insufficient data
(0d)

-14.3%

Win rate 0% Excess -43.3%

43d

Now

Insufficient data
(27d)

60-day momentum down

Insufficient data
(0d)

-3.8%

Win rate 31.8% Excess -26.2%

88d

-19.1%

Win rate 8.9% Excess -27.2%

179d

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.32%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -7.67 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.45%, win rate 30.8%, beating the market by -10.32 pts on average.

What does 三貝德 do? Company profile

其他業／文化創意、數位教育與補習教育服務上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

8489 對應證券為三貝德數位文創股份有限公司，櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立日為 2006-10-30，總部位於新北市三重區重新路五段609巷2號5樓，統一編號 28443147；上櫃日期為 2017-04-27；每股面額新台幣10元；截至櫃買公開資料 2026-06-17，實收資本額為新台幣598,701,100元，發行股數59,870,110股，其中私募股19,000,000股，特別股0股。董事長為余明珊，總經理兼發言人為欽憶弘，代理發言人為王家政，股務代理為福邦證券。公司 2025/12/29 法說資料揭露集團架構為三貝德持有亞洲教育平台97.08%、弋果文化事業64.16%，弋果文化持有極上教育83.50%；並揭露亞洲教育公司規模約470人、實收資本額3.82億元、學生15,367人；弋果美語公司規模約190人、實收資本額2.9億元、學生7,985人；極上教育公司規模約75人、實收資本額0.24億元、學生1,950人。主要股東名單（公司投資人頁，114/4/15，單位股與%）為：超越國際投資4,188,137股、11.15%；陳端梅1,988,000股、5.29%；史勇信1,235,035股、3.29%；台新銀行受託保管員工限制型股票992,000股、2.64%；史曦伊927,763股、2.47%；林和信894,982股、2.38%；群益金鼎受託保管六福證券（香港）投資專戶889,000股、2.37%；宏奇資產823,828股、2.19%；楊惠玫751,600股、2.00%；賴清錄738,000股、1.96%。

Business

三貝德定位為K-12數位教育與實體補教整合集團。母公司主要經營K12數位內容教育產品，包括「小學王」、「升學王」、跨載具課程服務及「AI智能書包」；集團透過亞洲教育平台整合國小、國中、高中升學輔導、團班、直錄播課程、測評系統、教學資源共享平台、智慧學習歷程與職涯探索營隊等；透過弋果文化經營兒童美語與國際教育，透過極上教育經營K12個別指導及小班教學。2025/12/29 法說資料稱產品涵蓋3至18歲，支援電腦、平板、手機等跨平台多載具，課程資源含10萬以上課程影片、30萬道練習題與百萬測驗題庫；AI智能書包提供AI智能解惑、個性化學習規劃、智能筆記、家長同步參與、學習歷程分析與學習報告。2025年前三季合併財報顯示，營業收入984,836千元，其中銷貨收入244,775千元（約24.9%）、勞務收入740,061千元（約75.1%）；按營運部門，數位資訊事業部門外部收入242,719千元（約24.6%），補習教育事業部門742,117千元（約75.4%），勞務服務部門為0。2025年第3季單季合併營收372,804千元，其中數位資訊事業部門外部收入101,761千元、補習教育事業部門271,043千元；第3季合併毛利率52%，個體毛利率52%。商業模式包括一次性或期間型數位課程／題庫／平台銷售、補習班學費與課程服務、實體據點營運、師資與教材整合、跨品牌客戶導流、以及AI學習系統帶動的加值服務。主要終端客戶為3至18歲學生與家長、補習班／教育機構；主要應用為升學輔導、全科數位學習、兒童美語、個別指導、學習歷程與測評。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028展望重點：1. 成長動能來自集團化整合與產品交叉銷售。公司於2025年公開收購亞洲教育並增加取得弋果文化股權，法說資料揭露持股達亞洲教育97.08%、弋果64.16%，形成數位教育、實體文理補習班、幼兒美語、個別指導四大版圖；若整合順利，可透過客戶資源交叉運用、延長客戶生命週期、降低獲客成本及共享師資／行政／採購形成規模經濟。2. AI與個人化學習為主要新產品方向。公司2024年推出AI智能書包，2025法說資料強調AI智能解惑、個性化學習規劃、智能筆記、家長同步、學習歷程分析；中央社報導公司與Venture Hub及廣達技術合作建置AI教育應用算力樞紐，預計支援生成式AI教育應用，惟該項報導屬公司對外宣傳資訊，實際商業化貢獻仍需追蹤。3. 營運改善跡象：2025年第3季個體營收101,762千元、稅後淨利1,060千元、EPS 0.03元；合併營收372,804千元、稅後淨利8,861千元、合併毛利率52%，較2024年同期合併部門損益虧損已有改善。4. 2026至2028若少子化壓力延續，單純補習班據點擴張的自然成長有限，較可行的成長路徑是提高數位產品滲透、提升AI加值ARPU、擴大3至18歲完整學齡服務、以OMO方式提高教室坪效，以及併購後的費用整併。5. 主要風險包括：台灣少子化導致K-12學生基數下降；補教與線上學習競爭激烈且轉換成本不高；AI產品需持續投入研發與算力成本，若付費轉換不足可能壓縮獲利；公開收購與增持後的財務槓桿、商譽／投資減損與整合執行風險；補教業法規、師資品質、個資與未成年資料保護、平台資安風險；主要營收仍高度依賴台灣內需教育市場。

Supply Chain

Upstream

補教名師、課程製作團隊與教材內容供應者提供K-12數位課程、題庫、講義、影音內容與實體授課師資；多為自然人、補習班或未上市教育內容供應者，未能逐一確認掛牌身分。
康軒文教、南一書局、翰林出版等教材出版社台灣K-12補充教材與課綱內容的重要參考來源；屬教育內容上游，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 中央社報導三貝德AI教育應用算力合作採用廣達伺服器暨雲端運算技術；屬AI伺服器／雲端硬體技術供應鏈關係，非傳統教育內容供應商。
NVIDIA Corporation 中央社報導AI教育算力建置涉及NVIDIA HGX Superpod；NVIDIA為美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃，stock_id依規範填null。
Venture Hub 中央社報導為亞洲AI高效能運算平台合作方；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。

Downstream

學生與家長主要終端消費者，購買數位學習產品、AI智能書包、補習課程、美語與個別指導服務；非公司實體。
亞洲教育平台股份有限公司三貝德子公司／通路與實體補教平台，法說揭露三貝德持股97.08%，提供全台55個營運據點及約1500間教室資源；亞洲教育曾為興櫃公司，非台股上市櫃，stock_id依規範填null。
弋果文化事業股份有限公司三貝德轉投資／兒童美語與國際教育通路，法說揭露持股64.16%；櫃買資料顯示為興櫃公司，非台股上市櫃，stock_id依規範填null。
極上教育諮詢股份有限公司弋果文化持股83.50%之個別指導與小班教學通路；未上市櫃。
全台補習班、實體教室與教育機構使用或銷售三貝德數位內容、測評、學習歷程、直錄播與AI輔助學習服務；多為未上市櫃業者。

Competitors

智基科技開發股份有限公司 6294 台股上櫃公司，經營志光／保成等公職與證照補教體系，與三貝德在補教服務、函授／數位課程、升學與考試輔導市場部分競爭，但客群以成人公職證照較多。
高點教育出版集團台灣補教與出版業者，主攻研究所、國考、證照與法律商管課程；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
儒林、赫哲、得勝者文教等升學補習班體系台灣國高中升學補教競爭者；多為未上市櫃或未能確認掛牌身分。
佳音英語、長頸鹿美語、何嘉仁國際文教等兒童美語體系與弋果美語在幼兒與兒童美語、連鎖補教市場競爭；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
均一平台、PaGamO、Hahow、TutorABC等線上教育平台在數位學習、題庫、線上課程或語言學習等領域與三貝德部分競爭；多非台股上市櫃公司或屬非直接可比業態。

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.