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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8938 明安. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8938
8938
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 明安 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 45th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.6%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 34th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 81th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -11.9% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -29% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-高雄 has accumulated 1,101 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 亞東-板橋 peaked at 480 lots, has sold 51%, 236 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.18pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.11pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -833 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-高雄 +1,101
- 台新-高雄 +998
- 群益金鼎-高雄 +509
- 群益金鼎-忠孝 +457
- 凱基-三多 +404
- 元大-西螺 +392
Distributing
- 亞東-板橋 236 left
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 59 left
- 元大-北投 53 left
- 永豐金-匯立 46 left
- 群益金鼎-建成 32 left
- 元大-六合 33 left
Desks
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -912
- 元大-旗山 -761
- 元大-新竹經國 -725
- 凱基-台北 -634
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1322 | +24.2% | +13.2% | 68.3% | +4.4% |
| 20-40 | 349 | +32.7% | +21.5% | 67.9% | +9% |
| 40-60 | 271 | +10.5% | +3.8% | 52% | -6.5% |
| 60-80 | 99 | +9.6% | -0.1% | 49.5% | -15.9% |
| 80-100 You are here | 379 | +7.1% | +1.8% | 51.2% | -12.6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 16.96, at the 80.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 289 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.1%, win rate 50.9%, lagged the market by 12.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.72%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.27 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.04%, win rate 52.6%, beating the market by +1.52 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.39%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by +0.01 pts on average.
What does 明安 do? Company profile
Overview
8938 對應明安國際企業股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 1987/07/20，上櫃日期為 2002/12/02，總公司位於高雄市小港區中林路 26 號。董事長為鄭錫潛，總經理與發言人為周益男。依 113 年度年報，114/03/31 實收股本為新台幣 1,546,336,510 元，普通股流通在外 154,633,651 股，另註明含庫藏股 2,629,000 股及債權人已申請轉換但尚未辦理變更登記 616,253 股。集團從業員工人數截至 114/03/31 為 8,810 人，平均年齡 38.7 歲，平均服務年資 7.8 年。主要股東截至 114/03/31 包括明安投資 7.95%、上明投資 4.26%、安彥投資 3.28%、明豐投資 1.70%、明彧投資 1.68%、呂宛蓉 1.67%、源宏投資 1.48%、自由投資 1.39%、福致投資開發 1.32%、明發投資 1.31%。公司 2024 年完成以股份轉換取得明揚國際科技 100% 股權，使明安成為國內少數同時具備高爾夫球頭、球桿、組桿與高爾夫球生產能力的供應商。
Business
明安為高爾夫球具與碳纖維複合材料 ODM/OEM 製造商，核心產品包括高爾夫木桿頭、鐵頭、推桿頭、碳纖維高爾夫球桿、組桿服務、練習球、二層至四層高爾夫球、高階比賽球、特殊規格高爾夫球，以及碳纖維熱塑與熱固預浸材料、玻璃纖維預浸材料、短纖預浸料、3C/AR/VR/運動用品複合材料零組件與碳纖維汽車零配件。113 年度產品營收比重為 Golf 球具 80.13%、Golf 球 7.81%、複合產品 12.06%；2025 年第一季媒體報導營收結構約為高爾夫球具 75%、小白球 15%、其餘為複合材料。銷售以外銷為主，113 年度美洲占 76.52%、亞洲占 17.42%、其他地區占 1.48%、內銷占 4.58%。主要商業模式為替國際高爾夫品牌與運動、3C、汽車等品牌客戶代工或共同開發，客戶端重視研發速度、品質穩定、保密、少量多樣與跨產地供應能力。公開資料顯示主要高爾夫品牌客戶包括 TaylorMade、Callaway 等；年報揭露 113 年兩大客戶代號 10986 與 10008 分別占銷貨淨額 46.09% 與 23.00%，但未揭露正式名稱。生產據點涵蓋台灣高雄、大陸東莞與越南同奈，近年越南比重提高，作為分散關稅與地緣政治風險的重要基地。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以三條主線觀察。第一，高爾夫本業在庫存去化後回到較健康水位，全球高爾夫參與人口與美國下場次數仍維持溫和成長，客製化、高容錯率、多材料複合結構與高階 ODM 球具需求有利明安；但 2026 年主要品牌客戶將新品週期由一年一次延長至兩年一次，可能改變過去第四季至隔年第一季的旺季拉貨模式，使淡旺季差距縮小但營收節奏更難預測。第二，產能與區域配置方面，越南已成為集團最大生產基地，球桿頭、小白球與複合材料線逐步完整，2025 年產值已超越中國；越南小白球產能已追上屏東明揚廠水準並仍有擴產空間，可承接高球供應鏈自中國移轉、降低美中關稅與地緣政治風險。第三，複合材料是中長期成長來源，碳纖維相關產值含高爾夫內部用料約占總產值 20% 至 30%；公司聚焦利基型、少量多樣、快速硬化與客製規格市場，推動碳纖維鞋板、匹克球拍、碳纖維輪圈、3C/AR/VR 輕量化零組件與回收碳纖維、熱塑性複材、生物基複材等新技術。風險包括主要客戶集中、匯率波動、外銷比重高、關稅政策變動、碳纖維與樹脂等原料價格波動、工安與環安衛要求、越南擴產執行、品牌新品節奏變慢、複材新應用從驗證到量產的不確定性，以及高爾夫消費景氣循環。
Supply Chain
- 國內外鈦料與不鏽鋼鋼錠供應商 高爾夫球頭與金屬零組件主要原料來源；年報僅揭露來源為國內及部分國外、供應狀況良好，未揭露單一企業名稱。
- 國內外毛胚供應商 高爾夫球頭加工前段材料；年報指出來源為國內及國外、供應狀況良好，未揭露單一企業名稱。
- 國內外碳纖維供應商 供應預浸材料、高爾夫碳纖維部件、鞋板、球拍、輪圈及 3C/AR/VR 複材零組件所需碳纖維；年報未揭露具名供應商，並指出多數原物料非單一供應商。
- 橡膠、離子化樹脂、壓克力鋅鹽、塗料與油墨供應商 高爾夫球與表面處理材料來源；年報揭露依客戶訂單需求而異、整體供應狀況良好，未揭露單一企業名稱。
- 日本、美國與歐洲複合材料相關供應商 公司年報表示已與日本、美國與歐洲相關供應商建立良好關係，以支持複合材料研發與生產；未揭露具名企業。
- TaylorMade 國際高爾夫品牌客戶，非台股掛牌；多個公開來源指出明安為 TaylorMade 高球具代工廠，且為其重要供應商之一。
- Callaway 國際高爾夫品牌客戶，非台股掛牌；公開來源指出明安及其併入的明揚為 Callaway 等品牌代工球具與高爾夫球。
- Mizuno 日本高爾夫與運動品牌客戶，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 過往資料指出明揚高爾夫球代工客戶包含 Mizuno。
- Maruman 日本高爾夫品牌客戶，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 過往資料列為明安主要日本客戶之一。
- 美系運動品牌客戶 非台股掛牌或未具名客戶；公司 2026 年法說相關報導指出匹克球拍已開始對美系品牌出貨，碳纖維鞋板已切入外部運動品牌供應鏈。
- 3C、AR/VR 與電子產品品牌大廠 非台股掛牌或未具名客戶；年報指出複合材料零組件應用於 3C、穿戴裝置與電子產品大廠，實際客戶名稱未公開。
- 汽車 Aftermarket 與 OEM 客戶 非台股掛牌或未具名客戶；公司布局碳纖維輪圈，Aftermarket 已開始出貨，OEM 業務仍在推進與品質驗證階段。
Competitors
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.