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AAON AAON, Inc.

Industrials

67.40 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -48.6%
Open
71.72
High
71.90
Low
65.55
Prev close
75.30
Volume
1.8M
Amplitude
8.43%
P/E
35.3
P/B
5.5
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+53.5%
52W 65.55 150.18

Is AAON, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Average; Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 35.29 73th percentile Pricey
Price / book 5.5 84th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -2.14 38th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 15.76 77th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 11.05 58th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) -6.15 31th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top; Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 53.53 88th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 29.93 71th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
60-day return (%) -25.25 22th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -28.02 28th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 77,008,354 85th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 55.01 60th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

AAON, Inc. (AAON) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From AAON, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of AAON, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like AAON, Inc.

AAON, Inc. (AAON) peers and tracking

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AAON, Inc. (AAON) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 53.53%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 9, Median +2.68%, Excess +2.12%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

60-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +16.65%, Excess +7.66%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +10.16%, Excess +1.5%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +6.22%

20-day +1.75%
60-day +10.47%
120-day +6.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
75%
62.5%
Sample
9
8
8
Median
+2.68%
+16.65%
+10.16%
Excess
+2.12%
+7.66%
+1.5%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
75%
62.5%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.22%, beat the market by 1.5 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here356+35.6% +33.6% 70.2% +16.4%
20-40 194-0.5% -10.8% 39.2% -18.7%
40-60 246+16.7% +18% 61.4% +3.2%
60-80 401+19.4% +13.6% 68.6% +3.9%
80-100 241+27.1% +30.5% 78% +18.7%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 35.29, placing it in the 4.8 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+10.7%
Win rate 76% Excess +1.8%
229d
-0.9%
Win rate 47.1% Excess -9.8%
363d
+5.9%
Win rate 48.5% Excess +1.2%
394d
60-day momentum down
Now
+27.8%
Win rate 86.5% Excess +14.3%
208d
+23.1%
Win rate 88.9% Excess +15%
252d
+17.5%
Win rate 78.6% Excess +14.2%
112d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 208 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 27.8%, win rate 86.5%, beat the market by 14.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.96%, win rate 53.3%, beating the market by -2.93 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.77%, win rate 48%, beating the market by -4.46 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.8%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by -2.29 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.