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ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Technology

293.84 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +0.8%
Open
293.20
High
297.76
Low
292.00
Prev close
286.08
Volume
3.5M
Amplitude
2.01%
P/E
26.0
P/B
22.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+6.5%
52W 188.16 309.40

Is Automatic Data Processing, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 26.03 64th percentile Pricey
Price / book 22.78 97th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 4.29 64th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 88.88 94th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 24.77 78th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 22.38 80th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 6.5 52th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 11.34 62th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 8.11 84th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 19.43 71th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 572,983,539 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 25.23 28th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Automatic Data Processing, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) peers and tracking

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 88.2%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
11 historical occurrences (since 2018-07-25)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 11, Median +2.98%, Excess +0.26%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

60-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 9, Median +0.04%, Excess -0.22%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%

120-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -3.6%, Excess -0.29%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +1.91%

20-day +2.62%
60-day +0.95%
120-day +1.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Sample
11
9
9
Median
+2.98%
+0.04%
-3.6%
Excess
+0.26%
-0.22%
-0.29%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
44.4%
66.7%

Over 9 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.91%, lagged the market by 0.29 pts; win rate 44.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here218+38.7% +37.4% 100% +7.4%
20-40 303+19.3% +20.1% 90.1% -1%
40-60 284+6.5% +6.8% 68% -13.2%
60-80 492-2.1% -0.3% 49.6% -14.9%
80-100 282+6.4% +6.1% 74.1% +10.5%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 26.03, placing it in the 16.1 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+17.8%
Win rate 100% Excess +4.7%
131d
+6.2%
Win rate 75.9% Excess -3.9%
353d
-0.7%
Win rate 46.8% Excess -2.1%
526d
60-day momentum down
+11.9%
Win rate 78.3% Excess -0.8%
397d
-0.1%
Win rate 52.4% Excess -5.2%
208d
+0.9%
Win rate 48.8% Excess +3.9%
82d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 131 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 17.8%, win rate 100%, beat the market by 4.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.15%, win rate 44%, beating the market by -1.42 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.75%, win rate 73.3%, beating the market by +3.06 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.