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AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
EPS surprise beat
14.91
14.91 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 52th percentile. TTM ROE is about 17.1%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 56th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 60th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $120.3M.

  • Signals are active now. EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 257.3043871551335%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

26 historical occurrences (since 2015-03-04)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 21, Median -0.22%, Excess +1.58%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 21, Median -3.33%, Excess +0.73%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%；120-day: Win 45%, Sample 20, Median -7.73%, Excess 0%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +6.92%

20-day +1.84%
60-day +4.11%
120-day +6.92%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.6%
42.9%
45%
Sample
21
21
20
Median
-0.22%
-3.33%
-7.73%
Excess
+1.58%
+0.73%
0%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
38.1%
40%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.92%, lagged the market by 0 pts; win rate 45%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here270+41.5% +42.1% 69.6% +21.1%
20-40 88+43% +55.5% 81.8% +30%
40-60 217+4.6% -6.1% 45.6% -5%
60-80 245-16.7% -21.5% 23.3% -31.1%
80-100 324+2.8% +23% 54.3% -8.7%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 9.20, placing it in the 11.4 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(9d)
+18.1%
Win rate 69.3% Excess +10.3%
179d
-12.2%
Win rate 17.2% Excess -22.4%
303d
60-day momentum down
Now
+63.4%
Win rate 73.4% Excess +48.5%
304d
-23%
Win rate 21% Excess -23.8%
229d
+2%
Win rate 44.2% Excess -2.4%
240d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 304 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 63.4%, win rate 73.4%, beat the market by 48.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.34%, win rate 90.9%, beating the market by +12.02 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.69%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by +2.08 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Continue researching American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.