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AER AerCap Holdings N.V.

Industrials

163.34 +4.82 +3.04% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +64.0%
Open
162.31
High
165.19
Low
161.01
Prev close
158.52
Volume
1.1M
Amplitude
2.64%
P/E
8.1
P/B
1.3
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+10.0%
52W 129.56 165.19

Is AerCap Holdings N.V. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair TTM P/E is Cheap, but Free-cash-flow yield is Average.
TTM P/E 8.13 20th percentile Cheap
Price / book 1.3 43th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -3.2 35th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good Operating margin, TTM is Top, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 16.78 78th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 54.45 93th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) -8.88 29th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 10.03 61th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -7.4 52th percentile Good
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) 2.38 76th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 16.77 68th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 160,680,969 91th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 21.51 23th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) today

3 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From AerCap Holdings N.V. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of AerCap Holdings N.V. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) peers and tracking

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AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-09)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 60%, Sample 30, Median +1.74%, Excess -2.26%, Beat mkt rate 43.3%

60-day: Win 63.3%, Sample 30, Median +3.19%, Excess -3.23%, Beat mkt rate 36.7%

120-day: Win 65.5%, Sample 29, Median +4.46%, Excess -6.62%, Beat mkt rate 34.5%

120 days after: historical avg -1.16%

20-day -1.57%
60-day -0.3%
120-day -1.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
63.3%
65.5%
Sample
30
30
29
Median
+1.74%
+3.19%
+4.46%
Excess
-2.26%
-3.23%
-6.62%
Beat mkt rate
43.3%
36.7%
34.5%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.16%, lagged the market by 6.62 pts; win rate 65.5%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 10.03%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 historical occurrences (since 2022-05-17)

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 43.86%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
40 historical occurrences (since 2015-02-23)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 62.9%, Sample 35, Median +1.28%, Excess -0.78%, Beat mkt rate 48.6%

60-day: Win 68.6%, Sample 35, Median +5.01%, Excess -0.17%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%

120-day: Win 76.5%, Sample 34, Median +8.98%, Excess -0.72%, Beat mkt rate 44.1%

120 days after: historical avg +6.64%

20-day +0.55%
60-day +3.86%
120-day +6.64%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.9%
68.6%
76.5%
Sample
35
35
34
Median
+1.28%
+5.01%
+8.98%
Excess
-0.78%
-0.17%
-0.72%
Beat mkt rate
48.6%
51.4%
44.1%

Over 34 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.64%, lagged the market by 0.72 pts; win rate 76.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 316+71.9% +69.8% 100% +43.2%
20-40 194+32.3% +29.2% 100% +14.7%
40-60 131+39% +40.6% 100% +21.8%
60-80 80+41.9% +46.8% 100% +23.6%
80-100 You are here211+30.7% +34% 94.8% +15.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 8.13, placing it in the 81.9 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+23.9%
Win rate 92.1% Excess +9.6%
355d
+17.1%
Win rate 90.9% Excess +11.8%
176d
Now
+11.1%
Win rate 76.4% Excess +4.6%
216d
60-day momentum down
+44.5%
Win rate 96.1% Excess +24.9%
205d
+25.8%
Win rate 100% Excess +17.4%
55d
+16.7%
Win rate 95.6% Excess +7.4%
45d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 216 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.1%, win rate 76.4%, beat the market by 4.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.14%, win rate 68.2%, beating the market by -0.92 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.