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AFG American Financial Group, Inc.

Financial Services

161.19 USD 1D +0.35 +0.22% Close 11/11
Since 2024-12-11 +26.1%

Close 11/11

Open
160.06
High
161.31
Low
158.79
Prev close
160.84
Volume
496.26K
Amplitude
1.57%
P/E
13.1
P/B
2.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+3.3%
52W 123.09 161.31
FinLab Studio

From American Financial Group, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of American Financial Group, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like American Financial Group, Inc.

Is American Financial Group, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-11-10

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 13.1 37th percentile · Fair
Price / book 2.8 70th percentile · Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 12.3 85th percentile · Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 21.6 83th percentile · Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 15.2 65th percentile · Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.2 76th percentile · Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 3.3 43th percentile · Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 28.6 70th percentile · Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 10.4 86th percentile · Top
240-day return (%) 21.5 73th percentile · Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
20-day dollar volume 69,446,546.0 83th percentile · Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 16.7 15th percentile · Top
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-11-10

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) peers and tracking

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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-30)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 22, Median +0.5%, Excess +0.3%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

60-day: Win 77.3%, Sample 22, Median +2.7%, Excess -0.2%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%

120-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +3.0%, Excess -0.9%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%

120 days after: historical avg +2.2%

20-day +1.2%
60-day +2.1%
120-day +2.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
77.3%
61.9%
Sample
22
22
21
Median
+0.5%
+2.7%
+3.0%
Excess
+0.3%
-0.2%
-0.9%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
40.9%
61.9%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.2%, lagged the market by 0.9 pts; win rate 61.9%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 355+18.9% +14.1% 74.1% +19.1%
20-40 391+10.0% +11.9% 67.5% -11.2%
40-60 320+12.8% +7.5% 91.9% -2.5%
60-80 Now163+10.2% +11.3% 90.2% -6.3%
80-100 212+105.4% +115.0% 99.5% +76.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 13.11, placing it in the 61.6 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+9.8%
Win rate 85.2% Excess +11.8%
304d
Now
+4.5%
Win rate 64.1% Excess -3.4%
407d
+32.5%
Win rate 76.4% Excess +21.5%
263d
60-day momentum down
+7.8%
Win rate 70.0% Excess -3.2%
270d
+6.5%
Win rate 77.6% Excess -4.7%
214d
+26.2%
Win rate 85.4% Excess +12.8%
103d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 407 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.5%, win rate 64.1%, lagged the market by 3.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 100,637 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.39%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.05 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.0%, win rate 76.9%, beating the market by +8.5 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg -10.5%, win rate 20.0%, beating the market by -10.6 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.1%, win rate 85.0%, beating the market by +4.5 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.