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AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Financial Services

278.89 +2.82 +1.02% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -8.5%
Open
274.70
High
281.53
Low
273.08
Prev close
276.07
Volume
2.8M
Amplitude
3.06%
P/E
42.2
P/B
2.9
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+25.6%
52W 190.75 281.53

Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Pricey.
TTM P/E 42.21 79th percentile Pricey
Price / book 2.94 71th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.23 59th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 7.07 58th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 17.39 68th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 13.97 68th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 25.6 79th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 3.97 57th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 9.97 85th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 8.06 61th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 397,612,489 96th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 32.74 37th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) peers and tracking

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

37 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-03)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 36, Median +1.84%, Excess +1.18%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

60-day: Win 72.2%, Sample 36, Median +5.61%, Excess +2.72%, Beat mkt rate 69.4%

120-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 36, Median +9.21%, Excess +2.35%, Beat mkt rate 77.8%

120 days after: historical avg +7.47%

20-day +1.27%
60-day +3.79%
120-day +7.47%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
72.2%
83.3%
Sample
36
36
36
Median
+1.84%
+5.61%
+9.21%
Excess
+1.18%
+2.72%
+2.35%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
69.4%
77.8%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.47%, beat the market by 2.35 pts; win rate 83.3%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 85.74%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
20 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-28)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 19, Median -0.7%, Excess -1.73%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%

60-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 19, Median -0.2%, Excess -3.13%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%

120-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 19, Median +5.75%, Excess -4.32%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%

120 days after: historical avg +2.74%

20-day -1.39%
60-day -0.47%
120-day +2.74%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.1%
42.1%
73.7%
Sample
19
19
19
Median
-0.7%
-0.2%
+5.75%
Excess
-1.73%
-3.13%
-4.32%
Beat mkt rate
47.4%
42.1%
47.4%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.74%, lagged the market by 4.32 pts; win rate 73.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 15Insufficient data
20-40 14Insufficient data
40-60 11Insufficient data
60-80 You are here63+5.8% -8.1% 41.3% -15.2%
80-100 1351+18% +23.2% 84.3% +4%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 42.21, placing it in the 76.3 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
Now
+9.9%
Win rate 85.2% Excess +2.3%
1068d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(26d)
+18%
Win rate 91.8% Excess +3.7%
73d
+3.6%
Win rate 63.6% Excess -2.7%
407d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1068 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.9%, win rate 85.2%, beat the market by 2.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.43%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by -0.18 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.78%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +4.81 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.