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AMBA Ambarella, Inc.

Technology

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
EPS surprise beat
66.91
66.91 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Ambarella, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 23th percentile. TTM ROE is about -9.1%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 6th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 87th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $118.8M.

  • Signals are active now. EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 5.26315789473683%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

44 historical occurrences (since 2015-03-03)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 51.3%, Sample 39, Median +1.9%, Excess -0.8%, Beat mkt rate 48.7%；60-day: Win 48.7%, Sample 39, Median -1.23%, Excess +1.17%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 43.6%, Sample 39, Median -3.69%, Excess -1.07%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%

120 days after: historical avg +5.57%

20-day -0.84%
60-day +4.63%
120-day +5.57%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.3%
48.7%
43.6%
Sample
39
39
39
Median
+1.9%
-1.23%
-3.69%
Excess
-0.8%
+1.17%
-1.07%
Beat mkt rate
48.7%
46.2%
38.5%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.57%, lagged the market by 1.07 pts; win rate 43.6%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.31%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -4.17 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.36%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +2.09 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.42%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +5.51 pts on average.

Continue researching Ambarella, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.