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AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Healthcare As of 2026-06-18
Quality Weak
Valuation Cheaper
Risk Moderate
Active signals Active 52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
250.5 Close (USD)
+57.8% 60-day
  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 20th percentile. TTM ROE is about -345.0%.
  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 5th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 62th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $160.8M.
  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
45
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

45 Neutral
TTM P/E -67.16
Cheap
Price / book 234.95
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -0.55
Average

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

18 historical occurrences (since 2019-01-07)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +5.5%, Excess +18.12%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +24.88%, Excess +37.34%, Beat mkt rate 70.6%；120-day: Win 76.5%, Sample 17, Median +54.09%, Excess +80.06%, Beat mkt rate 76.5%

120 days after: historical avg +84.28%

20-day +19.21%
60-day +39.47%
120-day +84.28%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.1%
70.6%
76.5%
Sample
18
17
17
Median
+5.5%
+24.88%
+54.09%
Excess
+18.12%
+37.34%
+80.06%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
70.6%
76.5%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 84.28%, beat the market by 80.06 pts; win rate 76.5%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 87.54237288135593%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

25 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-08)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 48%, Sample 25, Median 0%, Excess +8.66%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 52%, Sample 25, Median +4.02%, Excess +17.16%, Beat mkt rate 48%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 24, Median +23.56%, Excess +44.66%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +50.32%

20-day +9.81%
60-day +20.17%
120-day +50.32%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48%
52%
66.7%
Sample
25
25
24
Median
0%
+4.02%
+23.56%
Excess
+8.66%
+17.16%
+44.66%
Beat mkt rate
40%
48%
66.7%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 50.32%, beat the market by 44.66 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.39%, win rate 31.6%, beating the market by -1.97 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.