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AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

Healthcare

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
214.28
214.28 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 20th percentile. TTM ROE is about -345.0%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 5th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 46th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $118.7M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 82.20338983050848%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

27 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-08)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 26, Median -2.77%, Excess +7.69%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%；60-day: Win 52%, Sample 25, Median +4.28%, Excess +17.73%, Beat mkt rate 48%；120-day: Win 68%, Sample 25, Median +24.85%, Excess +43.06%, Beat mkt rate 68%

120 days after: historical avg +48.99%

20-day +8.55%
60-day +20.77%
120-day +48.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.3%
52%
68%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
-2.77%
+4.28%
+24.85%
Excess
+7.69%
+17.73%
+43.06%
Beat mkt rate
38.5%
48%
68%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 48.99%, beat the market by 43.06 pts; win rate 68%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +37.99%, win rate 72.2%, beating the market by +35.8 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.39%, win rate 31.6%, beating the market by -1.97 pts on average.

Continue researching Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.