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BFH

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. Financial Services As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

3 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 65Quality 78Growth 62Momentum 90Risk / liquidity 74

Is Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 66th percentile. TTM ROE is about 16.9%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 55th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 34th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $72.5M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-22)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median -0.49%, Excess -1.2%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%；60-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 15, Median -1.37%, Excess -2.17%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 14, Median -3.04%, Excess -1.81%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +4.44%

20-day -0.54%
60-day -0.23%
120-day +4.44%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
46.7%
42.9%
Sample
16
15
14
Median
-0.49%
-1.37%
-3.04%
Excess
-1.2%
-2.17%
-1.81%
Beat mkt rate
31.2%
40%
42.9%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.44%, lagged the market by 1.81 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 90.46808510638297%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

14 historical occurrences (since 2017-04-25)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +3.52%, Excess +1.01%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 13, Median +14.1%, Excess +10.66%, Beat mkt rate 69.2%；120-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +23.78%, Excess +14.57%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

120 days after: historical avg +24.23%

20-day +3.56%
60-day +15.18%
120-day +24.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.3%
69.2%
54.5%
Sample
14
13
11
Median
+3.52%
+14.1%
+23.78%
Excess
+1.01%
+10.66%
+14.57%
Beat mkt rate
50%
69.2%
54.5%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 24.23%, beat the market by 14.57 pts; win rate 54.5%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 29.562043795620426%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

24 historical occurrences (since 2015-04-16)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 22, Median -0.69%, Excess +1.62%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +6.28%, Excess +1.34%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +13.11%, Excess +7.09%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%

120 days after: historical avg +16.04%

20-day +3.44%
60-day +6.19%
120-day +16.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.5%
63.6%
61.9%
Sample
22
22
21
Median
-0.69%
+6.28%
+13.11%
Excess
+1.62%
+1.34%
+7.09%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
54.5%
61.9%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.04%, beat the market by 7.09 pts; win rate 61.9%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 607+15.4% +3% 51.7% +4.4%
20-40 363+23.1% +20.4% 70% +5.2%
40-60 You are here117+32.7% +18% 68.4% +13.6%
60-80 257+46.9% +52.2% 84% +27.2%
80-100 14Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 8.43, placing it in the 56.3 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+19%
Win rate 65.1% Excess +8.8%
350d
Now
+19.1%
Win rate 70.3% Excess +10.3%
256d
+23.5%
Win rate 57.9% Excess +14.4%
195d
60-day momentum down
-8.7%
Win rate 31.6% Excess -11.5%
497d
+20.5%
Win rate 83.6% Excess +7%
140d
+90.4%
Win rate 97.5% Excess +78.2%
40d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 256 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.1%, win rate 70.3%, beat the market by 10.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.