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BFH

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. Financial Services As of 2026-06-18
Quality Above avg
Valuation Fair
Risk Moderate
Active signals Active 52-week adjusted-price high
102.41 Close (USD)
+37.84% 60-day
  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 64th percentile. TTM ROE is about 16.9%.
  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 55th percentile.
  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 57th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $74.4M.
  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Good Valuation
64
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

64 Good
TTM P/E 8.39
Pricey
Price / book 1.32
Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 49.69
Top

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-22)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 15, Median -1.29%, Excess -1.23%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 14, Median -1.77%, Excess -2.92%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%；120-day: Win 38.5%, Sample 13, Median -4.37%, Excess -4.06%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%

120 days after: historical avg +2.06%

20-day -0.67%
60-day -1.47%
120-day +2.06%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
42.9%
38.5%
Sample
15
14
13
Median
-1.29%
-1.77%
-4.37%
Excess
-1.23%
-2.92%
-4.06%
Beat mkt rate
33.3%
35.7%
38.5%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.06%, lagged the market by 4.06 pts; win rate 38.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 607+15.4% +3% 51.7% +4.4%
20-40 363+23.1% +20.4% 70% +5.2%
40-60 You are here117+32.7% +18% 68.4% +13.6%
60-80 228+44% +39.7% 82% +24.1%
80-100 14Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 8.39, placing it in the 55.9 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+19%
Win rate 65.1% Excess +8.8%
350d
Now
+16.5%
Win rate 66.5% Excess +7.6%
227d
+23.5%
Win rate 57.9% Excess +14.4%
195d
60-day momentum down
-8.7%
Win rate 31.6% Excess -11.5%
497d
+20.5%
Win rate 83.6% Excess +7%
140d
+90.4%
Win rate 97.5% Excess +78.2%
40d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 227 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16.5%, win rate 66.5%, beat the market by 7.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.43%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +11.54 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.97%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +1.17 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.