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BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Basic Materials

64.91 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -64.9%
Open
62.83
High
64.96
Low
62.83
Prev close
63.06
Volume
4.7M
Amplitude
3.38%
P/E
175.4
P/B
1.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
-8.3%
52W 49.67 131.50

Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Expensive.
TTM P/E 175.43 96th percentile Expensive
Price / book 1.71 54th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.6 61th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral All 3 indicators are Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 0.99 42th percentile Average
Operating margin, TTM (%) 2.14 40th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 1.75 43th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) -8.25 23th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -92.95 23th percentile Average
Momentum Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
60-day return (%) -10.48 41th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -37.25 23th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 154,778,966 91th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 51.52 57th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Builders FirstSource, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Builders FirstSource, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 42.45%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
36 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-23)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 69.7%, Sample 33, Median +5.23%, Excess +1.73%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

60-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 33, Median +7.19%, Excess +4.79%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 33, Median +13%, Excess +13.62%, Beat mkt rate 60.6%

120 days after: historical avg +20.5%

20-day +2.63%
60-day +8.27%
120-day +20.5%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.7%
72.7%
66.7%
Sample
33
33
33
Median
+5.23%
+7.19%
+13%
Excess
+1.73%
+4.79%
+13.62%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
66.7%
60.6%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.5%, beat the market by 13.62 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 394+90.6% +102.4% 92.9% +79.4%
20-40 180+33.2% +19.7% 76.1% +22.6%
40-60 171+35.1% +32.4% 79.5% +19.7%
60-80 585+11.1% -16.5% 40.9% -8.4%
80-100 You are here87-48.8% -49.3% 0% -64.7%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 175.43, placing it in the 100.0 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+29.7%
Win rate 79.5% Excess +28.4%
347d
+36.8%
Win rate 95.7% Excess +24.6%
141d
-1%
Win rate 41.5% Excess -10.9%
426d
60-day momentum down
+47.8%
Win rate 72.4% Excess +40.8%
196d
+31.4%
Win rate 82.7% Excess +18%
185d
Now
-19.4%
Win rate 14.5% Excess -28.1%
242d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 242 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 19.4%, win rate 14.5%, lagged the market by 28.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.37%, win rate 85%, beating the market by +10.53 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.91%, win rate 78.9%, beating the market by +11.51 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.67%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -5.67 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.