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CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Consumer Cyclical

112.96 +0.32 +0.28% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +135.0%
Open
113.69
High
117.96
Low
112.87
Prev close
112.64
Volume
1.5M
Amplitude
4.52%
P/E
26.7
P/B
10.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+12.8%
52W 43.07 118.63

Is The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 26.69 65th percentile Pricey
Price / book 10.8 93th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.68 61th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 40.08 90th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 6.04 48th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 5.15 52th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 12.83 66th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -18.21 47th percentile Average
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 5.25 81th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 153.83 98th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 170,085,822 91th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 41.13 47th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) peers and tracking

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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 97.2%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
17 historical occurrences (since 2017-03-31)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 17, Median +0.69%, Excess +1.26%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%

60-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 17, Median +5.43%, Excess +4.26%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%

120-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -1.55%, Excess -0.08%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120 days after: historical avg +5.95%

20-day +2.62%
60-day +8.34%
120-day +5.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.8%
64.7%
43.8%
Sample
17
17
16
Median
+0.69%
+5.43%
-1.55%
Excess
+1.26%
+4.26%
-0.08%
Beat mkt rate
47.1%
52.9%
31.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.95%, lagged the market by 0.08 pts; win rate 43.8%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 6.14%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
24 historical occurrences (since 2015-04-22)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 65%, Sample 20, Median +2.6%, Excess +2.49%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +4.8%, Excess +5.21%, Beat mkt rate 65%

120-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 19, Median +16.56%, Excess +6.16%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%

120 days after: historical avg +14.93%

20-day +5.03%
60-day +9.42%
120-day +14.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
65%
70%
73.7%
Sample
20
20
19
Median
+2.6%
+4.8%
+16.56%
Excess
+2.49%
+5.21%
+6.16%
Beat mkt rate
50%
65%
52.6%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.93%, beat the market by 6.16 pts; win rate 73.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 100+60.4% +56.3% 97% +18.2%
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 You are here15Insufficient data
60-80 190+22.9% +23.6% 86.3% +4.6%
80-100 875+24.5% +14.7% 77.4% +11%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 26.69, placing it in the 47.5 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+69.1%
Win rate 100% Excess +21.3%
40d
Now
Insufficient data
(14d)
+16.1%
Win rate 72.1% Excess +6.3%
730d
60-day momentum down
+59.1%
Win rate 90% Excess +30.3%
60d
+31.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +29.9%
31d
+9.4%
Win rate 66.1% Excess +5.5%
425d

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.38%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +2.65 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.