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CAT

Caterpillar Inc. Industrials As of 2026-06-18
Quality Above avg
Valuation Expensive
Risk Moderate
Active signals Active 52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
985.82 Close (USD)
+37.56% 60-day
  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 68th percentile. TTM ROE is about 50.5%.
  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 90th percentile, above most peers.
  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 62th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $2,660.2M.
  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Weak Valuation
23
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

23 Weak
TTM P/E 49.05
Expensive
Price / book 24.48
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 2.51
Good

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-25)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +1.36%, Excess +2.19%, Beat mkt rate 56%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 24, Median +10.09%, Excess +5.29%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；120-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +9.09%, Excess +5.36%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%

120 days after: historical avg +12.69%

20-day +4.03%
60-day +7.54%
120-day +12.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64%
66.7%
69.6%
Sample
25
24
23
Median
+1.36%
+10.09%
+9.09%
Excess
+2.19%
+5.29%
+5.36%
Beat mkt rate
56%
62.5%
52.2%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.69%, beat the market by 5.36 pts; win rate 69.6%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 87.20338983050847%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

14 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-26)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +1.77%, Excess -0.43%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 14, Median +4.61%, Excess 0%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 78.6%, Sample 14, Median +17.29%, Excess +9.23%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +19.13%

20-day +1.51%
60-day +5.2%
120-day +19.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.3%
71.4%
78.6%
Sample
14
14
14
Median
+1.77%
+4.61%
+17.29%
Excess
-0.43%
0%
+9.23%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
50%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.13%, beat the market by 9.23 pts; win rate 78.6%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 11.849697276276894%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-02)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 8, Median -1.21%, Excess +0.19%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；60-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 7, Median -0.98%, Excess -1.4%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -6.34%, Excess +0.04%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%

120 days after: historical avg -2.29%

20-day +0.67%
60-day -3.07%
120-day -2.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.5%
28.6%
42.9%
Sample
8
7
7
Median
-1.21%
-0.98%
-6.34%
Excess
+0.19%
-1.4%
+0.04%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
42.9%
28.6%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.29%, beat the market by 0.04 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 34+111.8% +130.8% 100% +85.2%
20-40 594+35.6% +27% 91.1% +20.2%
40-60 410+29% +24% 75.6% +19.7%
60-80 205+4% -2.2% 47.8% -7.7%
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 49.05, placing it in the 91.6 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+11%
Win rate 85.9% Excess +3.4%
99d
+12.7%
Win rate 66.9% Excess +6.2%
531d
Now
+25.2%
Win rate 69.3% Excess +15.4%
244d
60-day momentum down
+29.1%
Win rate 98.5% Excess +20.1%
265d
+7.3%
Win rate 66.5% Excess +6.4%
224d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 244 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 25.2%, win rate 69.3%, beat the market by 15.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.69%, win rate 69%, beating the market by +4.69 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.