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CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

Consumer Cyclical

68.97

Close 10/16

P/E
49.4
P/B
3.2
52W 24.85 70.28
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Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-16

Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Expensive.
TTM P/E 49.37 83th percentile Expensive
Price / book 3.22 73th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 5.9 69th percentile Good
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Good, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 6.62 55th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) -0.15 35th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 2.74 45th percentile Average
Growth Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) -4.74 27th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -32.51 42th percentile Average
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 33.58 95th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 109.68 96th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 66,064,239 84th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 52.86 57th percentile Average

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-16

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) peers and tracking

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

7 historical occurrences (since 2017-12-15)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median +0.32%, Excess -0.66%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 6, Median -2.05%, Excess -10.47%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120-day: Win 16.7%, Sample 6, Median -8.47%, Excess -21.74%, Beat mkt rate 0%

120 days after: historical avg -15.08%

20-day -0.66%
60-day -7.99%
120-day -15.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
33.3%
16.7%
Sample
6
6
6
Median
+0.32%
-2.05%
-8.47%
Excess
-0.66%
-10.47%
-21.74%
Beat mkt rate
50%
33.3%
0%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 15.08%, lagged the market by 21.74 pts; win rate 16.7%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 99.07%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

16 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 25%, Sample 16, Median -4.87%, Excess -5.79%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

60-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 16, Median -5.71%, Excess -10.7%, Beat mkt rate 18.8%

120-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 15, Median +3.59%, Excess -16.59%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg -7.87%

20-day -5.64%
60-day -7.4%
120-day -7.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
25%
37.5%
53.3%
Sample
16
16
15
Median
-4.87%
-5.71%
+3.59%
Excess
-5.79%
-10.7%
-16.59%
Beat mkt rate
31.2%
18.8%
33.3%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 7.87%, lagged the market by 16.59 pts; win rate 53.3%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 320+6.2% -19.4% 41.9% -6.2%
20-40 162-3.6% -4% 43.2% -20.6%
40-60 155-13.4% -15.2% 31.6% -30.1%
60-80 223-22.8% -22% 11.2% -37.4%
80-100 You are here559-14.1% -18.5% 25.6% -32.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 49.37, placing it in the 93.5 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-7.3%
Win rate 19.4% Excess -4.5%
31d
-15.8%
Win rate 40.4% Excess -21.9%
104d
Now
-6.9%
Win rate 38.8% Excess -16.7%
490d
60-day momentum down
+13.8%
Win rate 53.1% Excess +3.1%
409d
-17.2%
Win rate 27.4% Excess -19.2%
212d
-1.2%
Win rate 26.6% Excess -5.4%
293d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 490 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 6.9%, win rate 38.8%, lagged the market by 16.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.48%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.13 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.3%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.43 pts on average.

Continue researching Cracker Barrel Old Country Store with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.