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CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated

Consumer Cyclical

99.01 +4.19 +4.41% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -33.1%
Open
95.00
High
99.76
Low
93.50
Prev close
94.83
Volume
1.8M
Amplitude
6.60%
P/E
14.7
P/B
4.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+4.2%
52W 73.08 118.35

Is Churchill Downs Incorporated a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 14.68 40th percentile Fair
Price / book 4.71 81th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 7.69 76th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 32.76 88th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 25.6 79th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 16.64 71th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 4.18 46th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 17.45 65th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top, but 240-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) 9.15 85th percentile Top
240-day return (%) -4.12 46th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 98,623,322 87th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 41.62 47th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Churchill Downs Incorporated to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Churchill Downs Incorporated across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) peers and tracking

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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 8.85%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
23 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 22, Median +4.79%, Excess +1.25%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%

60-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +9.24%, Excess +2.52%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

120-day: Win 68.2%, Sample 22, Median +12.56%, Excess +5.67%, Beat mkt rate 68.2%

120 days after: historical avg +12.45%

20-day +2.39%
60-day +6.2%
120-day +12.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
72.7%
63.6%
68.2%
Sample
22
22
22
Median
+4.79%
+9.24%
+12.56%
Excess
+1.25%
+2.52%
+5.67%
Beat mkt rate
59.1%
54.5%
68.2%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.45%, beat the market by 5.67 pts; win rate 68.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here786+1.5% -2.8% 45.2% -18.4%
20-40 182+20.7% +15.7% 69.8% +11.3%
40-60 129+12.9% +0.4% 51.2% +15.7%
60-80 78+26.4% +40.5% 67.9% +11.8%
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 14.68, placing it in the 1.9 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
-2%
Win rate 45.2% Excess -9.1%
500d
+19.2%
Win rate 50.7% Excess +4.8%
142d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+10.8%
Win rate 53% Excess -1%
558d
+29%
Win rate 51.6% Excess +21.2%
95d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 500 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2%, win rate 45.2%, lagged the market by 9.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.76%, win rate 81%, beating the market by +2.16 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.79%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +4.26 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.7%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by -0.97 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.