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CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Financial Services

181.19 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +20.3%
Open
185.00
High
185.17
Low
180.57
Prev close
181.87
Volume
1.1M
Amplitude
2.53%
P/E
10.6
P/B
1.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+9.9%
52W 151.99 194.81

Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 10.62 27th percentile Fair
Price / book 1.72 54th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 11.07 84th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good FCF margin, TTM is Top; ROE, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 16.46 78th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 25.02 78th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 23.21 80th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 9.86 60th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 26.93 70th percentile Good
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) 1.79 75th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 13.03 65th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
20-day dollar volume 110,686,682 88th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 17.37 18th percentile Top
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Cincinnati Financial Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Cincinnati Financial Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Cincinnati Financial Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 39.51%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
37 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 34, Median +3.92%, Excess +3.05%, Beat mkt rate 73.5%

60-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 34, Median +4.29%, Excess +1.6%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%

120-day: Win 82.4%, Sample 34, Median +8.69%, Excess +2.56%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%

120 days after: historical avg +8.46%

20-day +3.53%
60-day +4.31%
120-day +8.46%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70.6%
67.6%
82.4%
Sample
34
34
34
Median
+3.92%
+4.29%
+8.69%
Excess
+3.05%
+1.6%
+2.56%
Beat mkt rate
73.5%
58.8%
58.8%

Over 34 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.46%, beat the market by 2.56 pts; win rate 82.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 430+4% +3.8% 54% +0.2%
20-40 415+21.6% +22.1% 85.3% +2.4%
40-60 You are here149+26.6% +23.2% 99.3% +6.3%
60-80 116+32.8% +26.8% 96.6% +7.2%
80-100 205+42.6% +24.4% 99.5% +12.9%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.62, placing it in the 40.9 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+4.4%
Win rate 70.6% Excess -0.2%
555d
Now
+13.7%
Win rate 89.8% Excess +3.7%
303d
+20.9%
Win rate 95.8% Excess +6.3%
72d
60-day momentum down
+8.5%
Win rate 73.9% Excess -0.7%
261d
+19.6%
Win rate 100% Excess +4.3%
56d
+14.8%
Win rate 88.8% Excess +2.4%
188d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 303 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.7%, win rate 89.8%, beat the market by 3.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.73%, win rate 65%, beating the market by +2.16 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.47%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by -4.34 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.33%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by -2.1 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.