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CROX Crocs, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

153.13 +2.61 +1.73% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +37.2%
Open
151.63
High
156.56
Low
150.26
Prev close
150.52
Volume
1.5M
Amplitude
4.19%
P/E
11.2
P/B
5.1
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+0.7%
52W 73.21 156.56

Is Crocs, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 11.25 29th percentile Fair
Price / book 5.12 83th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 11.36 84th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 49.39 92th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 22.55 75th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.06 75th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 0.7 37th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 335.83 93th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 12.18 87th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 105.1 96th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 163,808,246 91th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 63.53 66th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Crocs, Inc. (CROX) today

3 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Crocs, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Crocs, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) peers and tracking

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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-11)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 65.4%, Sample 26, Median +2.89%, Excess +2.03%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

60-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 26, Median +13.09%, Excess +7.34%, Beat mkt rate 65.4%

120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 24, Median +36.79%, Excess +13.7%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%

120 days after: historical avg +19.25%

20-day +3.43%
60-day +10.59%
120-day +19.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
65.4%
69.2%
62.5%
Sample
26
26
24
Median
+2.89%
+13.09%
+36.79%
Excess
+2.03%
+7.34%
+13.7%
Beat mkt rate
57.7%
65.4%
58.3%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.25%, beat the market by 13.7 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 89.98%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
19 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 17, Median +1.2%, Excess +0.94%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%

60-day: Win 81.2%, Sample 16, Median +14.89%, Excess +11.51%, Beat mkt rate 68.8%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 15, Median +37.38%, Excess +13.34%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +20.22%

20-day +0.43%
60-day +14.73%
120-day +20.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.8%
81.2%
66.7%
Sample
17
16
15
Median
+1.2%
+14.89%
+37.38%
Excess
+0.94%
+11.51%
+13.34%
Beat mkt rate
58.8%
68.8%
60%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.22%, beat the market by 13.34 pts; win rate 66.7%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 11.48%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
39 historical occurrences (since 2015-05-08)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 36, Median +2.08%, Excess -0.15%, Beat mkt rate 52.8%

60-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 36, Median +3.97%, Excess +4.24%, Beat mkt rate 52.8%

120-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 36, Median +13.55%, Excess +10.49%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

120 days after: historical avg +16.88%

20-day +0.56%
60-day +7.22%
120-day +16.88%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
61.1%
61.1%
Sample
36
36
36
Median
+2.08%
+3.97%
+13.55%
Excess
-0.15%
+4.24%
+10.49%
Beat mkt rate
52.8%
52.8%
55.6%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.88%, beat the market by 10.49 pts; win rate 61.1%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 271+18.9% +21.7% 68.6% -4.6%
20-40 379-5.9% -7% 42% -23.6%
40-60 You are here65-16.1% -20.3% 23.1% -35%
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 11.25, placing it in the 48.0 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+20.3%
Win rate 69.6% Excess +11.2%
286d
Now
-21.3%
Win rate 10.6% Excess -30.2%
142d
Insufficient data
(4d)
60-day momentum down
+4.7%
Win rate 38.9% Excess -5.1%
296d
-24.6%
Win rate 0% Excess -28.6%
35d
+44.9%
Win rate 98.6% Excess +30.3%
72d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 142 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 21.3%, win rate 10.6%, lagged the market by 30.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.45%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +1.42 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.