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CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc.

Technology

165.13 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -3.3%
Open
170.94
High
173.00
Low
161.20
Prev close
171.61
Volume
651.2K
Amplitude
6.88%
P/E
85.6
P/B
539.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+14.3%
52W 71.75 174.25

Is Commvault Systems, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 85.56 91th percentile Expensive
Price / book 539.01 100th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.79 61th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 659.65 99th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 8.87 54th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 20.43 77th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 14.25 68th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 8.43 60th percentile Good
Momentum Strong 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 23.82 94th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 29.64 78th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 115,284,076 88th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 45.84 52th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Commvault Systems, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Commvault Systems, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) peers and tracking

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Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 93.8%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
19 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-18)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +2.01%, Excess +0.93%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%

60-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -2.23%, Excess -0.97%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%

120-day: Win 50%, Sample 18, Median +1.24%, Excess -3.66%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%

120 days after: historical avg +3.45%

20-day +2.12%
60-day +2.67%
120-day +3.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
47.4%
50%
Sample
19
19
18
Median
+2.01%
-2.23%
+1.24%
Excess
+0.93%
-0.97%
-3.66%
Beat mkt rate
52.6%
42.1%
38.9%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.45%, lagged the market by 3.66 pts; win rate 50%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 10.4%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
33 historical occurrences (since 2015-10-27)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 80.6%, Sample 31, Median +4.18%, Excess +1.48%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%

60-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 31, Median +1.69%, Excess +2.78%, Beat mkt rate 51.6%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 30, Median +7.03%, Excess +5.23%, Beat mkt rate 63.3%

120 days after: historical avg +13.16%

20-day +3.89%
60-day +7.09%
120-day +13.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
80.6%
58.1%
66.7%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+4.18%
+1.69%
+7.03%
Excess
+1.48%
+2.78%
+5.23%
Beat mkt rate
58.1%
51.6%
63.3%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.16%, beat the market by 5.23 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 404+47.1% +27.8% 68.6% +23.1%
20-40 You are here226+62.1% -11.5% 46% +31%
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 85.56, placing it in the 27.6 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+13.7%
Win rate 72.3% Excess +4.1%
357d
+15.5%
Win rate 32.4% Excess -0.8%
34d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+29.2%
Win rate 76% Excess +17.5%
333d
Insufficient data
(26d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 357 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.7%, win rate 72.3%, beat the market by 4.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.93%, win rate 60.9%, beating the market by +0.69 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -8.34%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -11.66 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.