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CVNA Carvana Co.

Consumer Cyclical

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
Filed revenue acceleration
65.84
65.84 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Carvana Co. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 55th percentile. TTM ROE is about 42.9%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 70th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 64th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $495.5M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 51.724602533009964%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

12 historical occurrences (since 2018-11-07)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -2.04%, Excess -7.58%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -3.76%, Excess -18.28%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；120-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 11, Median +13.86%, Excess -11.97%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

120 days after: historical avg -7.6%

20-day -7.38%
60-day -16.12%
120-day -7.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
63.6%
Sample
12
12
11
Median
-2.04%
-3.76%
+13.86%
Excess
-7.58%
-18.28%
-11.97%
Beat mkt rate
50%
41.7%
63.6%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 7.6%, lagged the market by 11.97 pts; win rate 63.6%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.89%, win rate 55.2%, beating the market by +6.65 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +39.51%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +34.72 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +33.84%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +28.06 pts on average.

Continue researching Carvana Co. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.