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DBX Dropbox, Inc.

Technology

strong quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Top tier
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
37.74
37.74 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Dropbox, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 82% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about -23.5%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 74th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 45th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $123.6M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

10 historical occurrences (since 2020-12-17)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 9, Median +4.41%, Excess -1.69%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 8, Median +3.46%, Excess -1.44%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 8, Median +0.28%, Excess -9.06%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +0.82%

20-day +0.18%
60-day +2.02%
120-day +0.82%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
50%
50%
Sample
9
8
8
Median
+4.41%
+3.46%
+0.28%
Excess
-1.69%
-1.44%
-9.06%
Beat mkt rate
44.4%
62.5%
50%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.82%, lagged the market by 9.06 pts; win rate 50%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 88.38983050847457%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

18 historical occurrences (since 2020-03-24)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 17, Median -0.72%, Excess -5.12%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；60-day: Win 31.2%, Sample 16, Median -3.52%, Excess -8.33%, Beat mkt rate 18.8%；120-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 16, Median -7.61%, Excess -19.5%, Beat mkt rate 6.2%

120 days after: historical avg -7.57%

20-day -3.16%
60-day -2.54%
120-day -7.57%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.2%
31.2%
37.5%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
-0.72%
-3.52%
-7.61%
Excess
-5.12%
-8.33%
-19.5%
Beat mkt rate
47.1%
18.8%
6.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 7.57%, lagged the market by 19.5 pts; win rate 37.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 64+18.4% +19.3% 100% +2.7%
20-40 99+4.9% +4.5% 62.6% -11.8%
40-60 129-6.9% -6.8% 20.9% -26.7%
60-80 You are here0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 20.62, placing it in the 69.5 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+1.4%
Win rate 61.1% Excess +0.1%
126d
-9.8%
Win rate 28.3% Excess -16%
99d
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+14.8%
Win rate 62.4% Excess +4.6%
117d
+6.5%
Win rate 75.4% Excess -10.4%
69d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.15%, win rate 46.4%, beating the market by -0.81 pts on average.

Continue researching Dropbox, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.