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DINO HF Sinclair Corporation

Energy

111.66 -3.34 -2.90% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +197.0%
Open
112.00
High
115.28
Low
111.25
Prev close
115.00
Volume
2.4M
Amplitude
3.50%
P/E
5.8
P/B
1.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+29.5%
52W 45.71 129.37

Is HF Sinclair Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Strong, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 5.82 15th percentile Cheap
Price / book 1.68 53th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 15.63 89th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 30.09 88th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 13.76 62th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 8.84 59th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 29.47 81th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 848.4 96th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 39.54 97th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 111.31 97th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 265,518,327 94th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 40.2 46th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) today

3 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From HF Sinclair Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of HF Sinclair Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) peers and tracking

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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 94.65%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
20 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-09)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 40%, Sample 20, Median -1.56%, Excess -1.18%, Beat mkt rate 35%

60-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median +2.1%, Excess +2.81%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -3.67%, Excess +2.16%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%

120 days after: historical avg +7.51%

20-day +0.58%
60-day +6.54%
120-day +7.51%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
40%
50%
47.4%
Sample
20
20
19
Median
-1.56%
+2.1%
-3.67%
Excess
-1.18%
+2.81%
+2.16%
Beat mkt rate
35%
50%
47.4%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.51%, beat the market by 2.16 pts; win rate 47.4%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 29.47%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 historical occurrences (since 2018-07-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 85.7%, Sample 7, Median +7.26%, Excess +6.51%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +8.21%, Excess +8.01%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 6, Median +16.03%, Excess +12.67%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +8.87%

20-day +8.06%
60-day +11.34%
120-day +8.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
85.7%
71.4%
66.7%
Sample
7
7
6
Median
+7.26%
+8.21%
+16.03%
Excess
+6.51%
+8.01%
+12.67%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
57.1%
66.7%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.87%, beat the market by 12.67 pts; win rate 66.7%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 50.06%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
34 historical occurrences (since 2015-05-06)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 61.3%, Sample 31, Median +5.05%, Excess +4.44%, Beat mkt rate 61.3%

60-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 31, Median +8.16%, Excess +4.48%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 30, Median +11.29%, Excess +6.77%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%

120 days after: historical avg +13.98%

20-day +6.75%
60-day +9.16%
120-day +13.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.3%
58.1%
66.7%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+5.05%
+8.16%
+11.29%
Excess
+4.44%
+4.48%
+6.77%
Beat mkt rate
61.3%
58.1%
53.3%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.98%, beat the market by 6.77 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here367+1.9% +2.8% 51.5% -20%
20-40 310+24.4% +31.5% 74.8% +18.7%
40-60 156+30.5% +25.9% 78.2% +31.2%
60-80 123+161.6% +133.6% 100% +133.8%
80-100 12Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 5.82, placing it in the 16.5 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
-3.9%
Win rate 41.1% Excess -12.5%
263d
+39.5%
Win rate 97.3% Excess +40%
226d
+41.2%
Win rate 100% Excess +31.6%
36d
60-day momentum down
+2.5%
Win rate 50.4% Excess -5.1%
278d
+13.1%
Win rate 62.1% Excess +10.9%
140d
+60.4%
Win rate 97.9% Excess +44.9%
145d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 263 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.9%, win rate 41.1%, lagged the market by 12.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.02%, win rate 64.3%, beating the market by +11.87 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.