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DINO HF Sinclair Corporation

Energy

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
116.62
116.62 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is HF Sinclair Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 49th percentile. TTM ROE is about 12.7%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 70th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 42th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $245.3M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2017-09-25)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 13, Median +3.19%, Excess +2.06%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +16.5%, Excess +9.58%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 11, Median +25.96%, Excess +16.73%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

120 days after: historical avg +22.75%

20-day +3.35%
60-day +13.14%
120-day +22.75%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.2%
66.7%
72.7%
Sample
13
12
11
Median
+3.19%
+16.5%
+25.96%
Excess
+2.06%
+9.58%
+16.73%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
66.7%
63.6%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.75%, beat the market by 16.73 pts; win rate 72.7%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 95.6779661016949%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

17 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-09)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 17, Median -0.9%, Excess -1.57%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%；60-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +5.1%, Excess +2.43%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；120-day: Win 40%, Sample 15, Median -5.33%, Excess -3.76%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +2.25%

20-day +0.1%
60-day +6.07%
120-day +2.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.2%
52.9%
40%
Sample
17
17
15
Median
-0.9%
+5.1%
-5.33%
Excess
-1.57%
+2.43%
-3.76%
Beat mkt rate
35.3%
47.1%
40%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.25%, lagged the market by 3.76 pts; win rate 40%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 367-1.5% -0.6% 49.3% -23.4%
20-40 310+19.6% +23.6% 65.5% +13.9%
40-60 156+27.6% +22% 70.5% +28.4%
60-80 You are here92+119.3% +103.1% 100% +93.1%
80-100 12Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 17.51, placing it in the 61.4 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-5.7%
Win rate 38.7% Excess -14.3%
256d
Now
+30.4%
Win rate 95.9% Excess +32.7%
195d
+36.6%
Win rate 100% Excess +27.2%
34d
60-day momentum down
+0.8%
Win rate 48.4% Excess -6.8%
285d
+12.1%
Win rate 62.1% Excess +9.9%
140d
+54.1%
Win rate 98% Excess +38.7%
147d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 195 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 30.4%, win rate 95.9%, beat the market by 32.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.33%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +3.86 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.1%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +2.42 pts on average.

Continue researching HF Sinclair Corporation with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.