Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze DINO HF Sinclair Corporation. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=DINO

No install, open FinLab Studio

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation Energy As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

3 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add HF Sinclair Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 52Quality 57Growth 19Momentum 90Risk / liquidity 78

Is HF Sinclair Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 49th percentile. TTM ROE is about 12.7%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 64th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 38th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $253.4M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2017-09-25)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +1.89%, Excess +2.04%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +16.5%, Excess +9.58%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 70%, Sample 10, Median +21.75%, Excess +11.78%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +16.87%

20-day +3.17%
60-day +13.14%
120-day +16.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
66.7%
70%
Sample
12
12
10
Median
+1.89%
+16.5%
+21.75%
Excess
+2.04%
+9.58%
+11.78%
Beat mkt rate
50%
66.7%
60%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.87%, beat the market by 11.78 pts; win rate 70%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 95.40425531914893%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

17 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-09)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 17, Median -0.29%, Excess -1.12%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median -3.76%, Excess -0.01%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；120-day: Win 40%, Sample 15, Median -5.33%, Excess -4.02%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +0.65%

20-day +0.57%
60-day +3.83%
120-day +0.65%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.1%
50%
40%
Sample
17
16
15
Median
-0.29%
-3.76%
-5.33%
Excess
-1.12%
-0.01%
-4.02%
Beat mkt rate
35.3%
43.8%
40%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.65%, lagged the market by 4.02 pts; win rate 40%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 18.262806236080166%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

33 historical occurrences (since 2015-05-06)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 30, Median +4.41%, Excess +3.61%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +5.5%, Excess +2.42%, Beat mkt rate 56.7%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 28, Median +4.84%, Excess +0.74%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +7.75%

20-day +5.86%
60-day +7.1%
120-day +7.75%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
56.7%
57.1%
Sample
30
30
28
Median
+4.41%
+5.5%
+4.84%
Excess
+3.61%
+2.42%
+0.74%
Beat mkt rate
60%
56.7%
50%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.75%, beat the market by 0.74 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 367-1.5% -0.6% 49.3% -23.4%
20-40 310+19.6% +23.6% 65.5% +13.9%
40-60 You are here156+27.6% +22% 70.5% +28.4%
60-80 71+94.8% +92.6% 100% +70.8%
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 13.73, placing it in the 58.8 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-5.7%
Win rate 38.7% Excess -14.3%
256d
Now
+24.7%
Win rate 95.5% Excess +28.8%
176d
Insufficient data
(28d)
60-day momentum down
+0.8%
Win rate 48.4% Excess -6.8%
285d
+9.8%
Win rate 61% Excess +7.9%
136d
+53.5%
Win rate 97.9% Excess +37.9%
143d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 176 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 24.7%, win rate 95.5%, beat the market by 28.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.33%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +3.86 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.