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Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.
Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
Over 5 occurrences, 20-day forward avg gained 2.03%, beat the market by 0.13 pts; win rate 60%.
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 217 | -25.4% | -29.8% | 11.5% | -27.7% |
| 20-40 | 5 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 168 | +28.7% | +43.1% | 72% | +10.8% |
| 60-80 | 197 | +35.7% | +37.6% | 87.8% | +22.8% |
| 80-100 You are here | 333 | +24.1% | +32.5% | 85.3% | +4.3% |
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 24.60, placing it in the 94.8 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 303 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.7%, win rate 70.3%, beat the market by 3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.36%, win rate 70.8%, beating the market by +2.54 pts on average.
The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.48%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +0.92 pts on average.
Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.42%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +4.18 pts on average.
Ask AI to research recent events and build a visual report.
Tell your AI:
“Help me set up FinLab and analyze EBAY eBay Inc.: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=EBAY”
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.