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EME EMCOR Group, Inc.

Industrials

679.55 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +35.1%
Open
662.97
High
694.28
Low
658.49
Prev close
689.32
Volume
553.2K
Amplitude
5.19%
P/E
19.7
P/B
7.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+22.1%
52W 564.92 951.96

Is EMCOR Group, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 19.71 52th percentile Pricey
Price / book 6.96 88th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 4.98 67th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 36.04 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 10.22 56th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 7.47 56th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 22.15 76th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 38.64 74th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral 240-day return is Good, but 60-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) -15.9 33th percentile Average
240-day return (%) 9.87 63th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 292,580,536 95th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 36.28 41th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From EMCOR Group, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of EMCOR Group, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like EMCOR Group, Inc.

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) peers and tracking

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EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 22.15%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

15 historical occurrences (since 2019-07-30)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +2.05%, Excess +1.76%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +2.61%, Excess +0.91%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120-day: Win 76.9%, Sample 13, Median +11.51%, Excess +8.93%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%

120 days after: historical avg +14.41%

20-day +3.63%
60-day +4.16%
120-day +14.41%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.3%
64.3%
76.9%
Sample
14
14
13
Median
+2.05%
+2.61%
+11.51%
Excess
+1.76%
+0.91%
+8.93%
Beat mkt rate
50%
57.1%
61.5%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.41%, beat the market by 8.93 pts; win rate 76.9%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 14.7%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
33 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-30)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 67.7%, Sample 31, Median +3.03%, Excess +3.09%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%

60-day: Win 71%, Sample 31, Median +2.69%, Excess +2.81%, Beat mkt rate 48.4%

120-day: Win 80%, Sample 30, Median +13.46%, Excess +9.6%, Beat mkt rate 63.3%

120 days after: historical avg +18.14%

20-day +4.56%
60-day +7.36%
120-day +18.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
67.7%
71%
80%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+3.03%
+2.69%
+13.46%
Excess
+3.09%
+2.81%
+9.6%
Beat mkt rate
58.1%
48.4%
63.3%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.14%, beat the market by 9.6 pts; win rate 80%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 159+79% +82.7% 100% +49.5%
20-40 167+61.8% +54% 100% +56.1%
40-60 You are here326+72.2% +77.8% 93.6% +59.8%
60-80 237+61.4% +64.9% 92.8% +44.7%
80-100 552+28.7% +26.7% 85.1% +13.7%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 19.71, placing it in the 42.1 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+37.4%
Win rate 95.6% Excess +24%
45d
+25.6%
Win rate 81.4% Excess +20.9%
306d
+18.2%
Win rate 82.8% Excess +9%
745d
60-day momentum down
+31.3%
Win rate 93.2% Excess +22.6%
191d
Now
+26.1%
Win rate 61.6% Excess +21.6%
190d
+34.5%
Win rate 98.8% Excess +24.8%
84d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum down”: across 190 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 26.1%, win rate 61.6%, beat the market by 21.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.59%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +2.92 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.06%, win rate 65%, beating the market by +3.07 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.