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FAST Fastenal Company

Industrials

52.55 +0.64 +1.23% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +31.0%
Open
52.48
High
53.32
Low
52.43
Prev close
51.91
Volume
6.2M
Amplitude
1.71%
P/E
41.9
P/B
14.3
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+13.5%
52W 38.97 53.32

Is Fastenal Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 41.86 79th percentile Pricey
Price / book 14.35 95th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.77 53th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 34.18 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 20.54 72th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 11.6 64th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 13.53 67th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 15.89 64th percentile Good
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) 2.7 77th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 31.1 79th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 420,769,582 96th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 19.64 21th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Fastenal Company (FAST) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Fastenal Company to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Fastenal Company across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Fastenal Company

Fastenal Company (FAST) peers and tracking

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Fastenal Company (FAST) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-18)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 76.7%, Sample 30, Median +2.38%, Excess +0.45%, Beat mkt rate 40%

60-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +1.97%, Excess -0.63%, Beat mkt rate 43.3%

120-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +4.14%, Excess -2.32%, Beat mkt rate 37.9%

120 days after: historical avg +3.05%

20-day +2.6%
60-day +2.4%
120-day +3.05%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
76.7%
56.7%
58.6%
Sample
30
30
29
Median
+2.38%
+1.97%
+4.14%
Excess
+0.45%
-0.63%
-2.32%
Beat mkt rate
40%
43.3%
37.9%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.05%, lagged the market by 2.32 pts; win rate 58.6%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 13.53%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-16)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +4.17%, Excess +3.02%, Beat mkt rate 87.5%

60-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +2.88%, Excess +1.92%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +12.19%, Excess +5.29%, Beat mkt rate 85.7%

120 days after: historical avg +6.37%

20-day +5.58%
60-day +1.51%
120-day +6.37%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75%
75%
71.4%
Sample
8
8
7
Median
+4.17%
+2.88%
+12.19%
Excess
+3.02%
+1.92%
+5.29%
Beat mkt rate
87.5%
62.5%
85.7%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.37%, beat the market by 5.29 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here303+22.4% +19.8% 96.7% +1.5%
20-40 532+23.3% +23.8% 95.5% +1.3%
40-60 423+9.1% +7.8% 60.5% +6.9%
60-80 189+14% +13.9% 94.2% -2.5%
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 41.86, placing it in the 8.5 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9.4%
Win rate 77.5% Excess 0%
507d
+4.2%
Win rate 69.2% Excess -1.7%
483d
+6.8%
Win rate 80.2% Excess +0.2%
86d
60-day momentum down
+16.6%
Win rate 89.6% Excess +6.5%
289d
+13.1%
Win rate 78% Excess +7.2%
191d
Insufficient data
(8d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 507 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.4%, win rate 77.5%, lagged the market by 0%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.71%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -3.02 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.19%, win rate 60%, beating the market by -4.29 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.