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FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

Financial Services

2,368 +15.62 +0.66% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +6.6%
Open
2,360
High
2,388
Low
2,350
Prev close
2,353
Volume
57.4K
Amplitude
1.58%
P/E
12.1
P/B
1.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
-0.7%
52W 1,759 2,430

Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top; Price / book is Fair.
TTM P/E 12.06 32th percentile Fair
Price / book 1.23 41th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 9.68 81th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 11.09 68th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 22.25 75th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 17.74 73th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) -0.65 34th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 15.36 64th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 5.25 81th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 28.04 77th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 187,098,656 92th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 25.95 29th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From First Citizens BancShares, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) peers and tracking

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First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

25 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-24)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 41.7%, Sample 24, Median -0.94%, Excess -0.77%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

60-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 24, Median +1.5%, Excess +0.42%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%

120-day: Win 56.5%, Sample 23, Median +2.08%, Excess +1.32%, Beat mkt rate 39.1%

120 days after: historical avg +6.55%

20-day -0.24%
60-day +3.7%
120-day +6.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.7%
54.2%
56.5%
Sample
24
24
23
Median
-0.94%
+1.5%
+2.08%
Excess
-0.77%
+0.42%
+1.32%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
41.7%
39.1%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.55%, beat the market by 1.32 pts; win rate 56.5%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 19.9%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
18 historical occurrences (since 2021-04-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 17, Median -0.51%, Excess -1.17%, Beat mkt rate 29.4%

60-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 17, Median +0.78%, Excess -2.4%, Beat mkt rate 29.4%

120-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 16, Median +4.94%, Excess +1.16%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +5.85%

20-day +0.53%
60-day -0.89%
120-day +5.85%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.1%
64.7%
68.8%
Sample
17
17
16
Median
-0.51%
+0.78%
+4.94%
Excess
-1.17%
-2.4%
+1.16%
Beat mkt rate
29.4%
29.4%
37.5%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.85%, beat the market by 1.16 pts; win rate 68.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 611+66.4% +50% 97.4% +43%
20-40 385+20.2% +9.2% 75.8% +4.5%
40-60 You are here182+14.8% 0% 50% +11.7%
60-80 200+16% -1% 47.5% +14%
80-100 60-8.3% -13.2% 23.3% -16.4%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 12.06, placing it in the 42.0 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+22.1%
Win rate 92.3% Excess +11.6%
505d
Now
+3.6%
Win rate 45.7% Excess -2.6%
313d
0%
Win rate 50.4% Excess -5.1%
139d
60-day momentum down
+35.6%
Win rate 86% Excess +25.2%
443d
+0.3%
Win rate 53.5% Excess +1.3%
142d
Insufficient data
(16d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 313 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.6%, win rate 45.7%, lagged the market by 2.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.37%, win rate 77.8%, beating the market by +5.61 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.27%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +6.97 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.