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FIX

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Industrials As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

3 active signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Comfort Systems USA, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 25Quality 79Growth 86Momentum 62Risk / liquidity 67

Is Comfort Systems USA, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 69th percentile. TTM ROE is about 44.6%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 88th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 65th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $912.3M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 90.2127659574468%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

24 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-24)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 24, Median -0.34%, Excess -0.34%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 41.7%, Sample 24, Median -0.67%, Excess +5.77%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 24, Median +8.33%, Excess +15.81%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +19.24%

20-day -0.3%
60-day +7.16%
120-day +19.24%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
41.7%
62.5%
Sample
24
24
24
Median
-0.34%
-0.67%
+8.33%
Excess
-0.34%
+5.77%
+15.81%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
58.3%
62.5%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.24%, beat the market by 15.81 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 46.10738765936544%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

17 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-26)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 87.5%, Sample 16, Median +8.35%, Excess +5.86%, Beat mkt rate 81.2%；60-day: Win 75%, Sample 16, Median +13.99%, Excess +13.68%, Beat mkt rate 75%；120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 14, Median +27.54%, Excess +27.39%, Beat mkt rate 78.6%

120 days after: historical avg +31.41%

20-day +6.11%
60-day +16.08%
120-day +31.41%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
87.5%
75%
71.4%
Sample
16
16
14
Median
+8.35%
+13.99%
+27.54%
Excess
+5.86%
+13.68%
+27.39%
Beat mkt rate
81.2%
75%
78.6%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 31.41%, beat the market by 27.39 pts; win rate 71.4%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 19.904306220095698%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

34 historical occurrences (since 2015-02-26)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 79.3%, Sample 29, Median +10.49%, Excess +7.99%, Beat mkt rate 79.3%；60-day: Win 75.9%, Sample 29, Median +12.68%, Excess +10.81%, Beat mkt rate 65.5%；120-day: Win 85.2%, Sample 27, Median +27.57%, Excess +27.31%, Beat mkt rate 81.5%

120 days after: historical avg +35.9%

20-day +9.2%
60-day +15.56%
120-day +35.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
79.3%
75.9%
85.2%
Sample
29
29
27
Median
+10.49%
+12.68%
+27.57%
Excess
+7.99%
+10.81%
+27.31%
Beat mkt rate
79.3%
65.5%
81.5%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 35.9%, beat the market by 27.31 pts; win rate 85.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 220+88.4% +88.4% 100% +56.5%
20-40 162+56.7% +61.1% 100% +44.3%
40-60 256+52.4% +35.4% 96.1% +45.5%
60-80 243+112.9% +65.1% 100% +104.5%
80-100 You are here497+105.1% +97.8% 99.8% +88.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 42.54, placing it in the 93.5 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+33.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +20.5%
178d
+20.8%
Win rate 86.5% Excess +13%
260d
+40.8%
Win rate 82.7% Excess +35%
670d
60-day momentum down
+47.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +34.5%
154d
+57.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +49.2%
111d
Now
+47.2%
Win rate 100% Excess +44.2%
125d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 125 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 47.2%, win rate 100%, beat the market by 44.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.11%, win rate 69%, beating the market by +10.73 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.