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GEO

The GEO Group, Inc. Industrials As of 2026-08-21 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

3 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
Valuation 34Quality 57Growth 82Momentum 88Risk / liquidity 73

Is The GEO Group, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 58th percentile. TTM ROE is about 18.3%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 68th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 33th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $56.8M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

9 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-30)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 9, Median +5.23%, Excess +2.08%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +1.46%, Excess +0.07%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 8, Median -5.31%, Excess +2.56%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +7.95%

20-day +2.1%
60-day +2.47%
120-day +7.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
62.5%
37.5%
Sample
9
8
8
Median
+5.23%
+1.46%
-5.31%
Excess
+2.08%
+0.07%
+2.56%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
50%
37.5%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.95%, beat the market by 2.56 pts; win rate 37.5%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 98.47328244274809%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

11 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-03)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 11, Median +10.36%, Excess +6.06%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%；60-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 11, Median +14.79%, Excess +7.48%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 10, Median +21.99%, Excess +14.33%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +19.42%

20-day +7.53%
60-day +10.2%
120-day +19.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
63.6%
60%
Sample
11
11
10
Median
+10.36%
+14.79%
+21.99%
Excess
+6.06%
+7.48%
+14.33%
Beat mkt rate
63.6%
54.5%
60%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.42%, beat the market by 14.33 pts; win rate 60%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 12.743795396579905%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

1 historical occurrences (since 2026-05-07)

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 590+6.8% -6.8% 42.2% -9%
20-40 85+57.7% +68.1% 85.9% +38.9%
40-60 You are here160+91.3% +88.6% 93.1% +77.8%
60-80 137+28.5% +10.6% 72.3% +17.9%
80-100 408+10.2% -2.3% 48% -6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 16.60, placing it in the 53.4 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-0.5%
Win rate 29.5% Excess -3.9%
200d
Now
+39.3%
Win rate 93.1% Excess +29.4%
173d
+4.9%
Win rate 34.1% Excess -2%
323d
60-day momentum down
+8.5%
Win rate 44.8% Excess -2.4%
524d
+45.7%
Win rate 100% Excess +54.1%
62d
+16.4%
Win rate 39.4% Excess +8.3%
218d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 173 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 39.3%, win rate 93.1%, beat the market by 29.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,611 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.23%, a 58.2% positive-return rate, and +2.87 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.67%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by +2.1 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.