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HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Healthcare

473.19 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +46.6%
Open
480.34
High
485.73
Low
472.46
Prev close
478.08
Volume
1.1M
Amplitude
2.78%
P/E
15.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+5.8%
52W 353.99 556.52

Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Good; TTM P/E is Fair.
TTM P/E 15.68 43th percentile Fair
Price / book -12.24 N/A
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 6.04 71th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral Operating margin, TTM is Good, but ROE, TTM is Lagging.
ROE, TTM (%) -83.89 13th percentile Lagging
Operating margin, TTM (%) 15.34 65th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 7.59 56th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 5.82 50th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 16.66 65th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 15.94 90th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 0.8 52th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 585,876,431 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 27.54 31th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From HCA Healthcare, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of HCA Healthcare, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like HCA Healthcare, Inc.

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add HCA Healthcare, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 8.57%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
28 historical occurrences (since 2015-02-03)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 72%, Sample 25, Median +4.34%, Excess +2.55%, Beat mkt rate 64%

60-day: Win 76%, Sample 25, Median +4.47%, Excess +3.52%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120-day: Win 80%, Sample 25, Median +7.28%, Excess +4.96%, Beat mkt rate 56%

120 days after: historical avg +12.21%

20-day +4.31%
60-day +7.45%
120-day +12.21%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
72%
76%
80%
Sample
25
25
25
Median
+4.34%
+4.47%
+7.28%
Excess
+2.55%
+3.52%
+4.96%
Beat mkt rate
64%
60%
56%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.21%, beat the market by 4.96 pts; win rate 80%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 212+55.4% +41.4% 99.5% +35.2%
20-40 148+25.3% +6.3% 65.5% +19.6%
40-60 265+36.6% +27.1% 89.8% +16.3%
60-80 You are here356+30.8% +18.8% 95.5% +13.2%
80-100 464+10.5% +3.9% 71.6% -0.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.68, placing it in the 68.4 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+21.5%
Win rate 75.9% Excess +17.9%
83d
+10.8%
Win rate 65.9% Excess +3.1%
290d
Now
+10.5%
Win rate 63.9% Excess +1.4%
767d
60-day momentum down
+22.4%
Win rate 77.8% Excess +15.4%
207d
+17.1%
Win rate 86.1% Excess +10.3%
173d
+4.9%
Win rate 64.4% Excess +0.2%
45d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 767 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.5%, win rate 63.9%, beat the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.89%, win rate 62.1%, beating the market by +0.23 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.75%, win rate 72.2%, beating the market by -0.7 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.