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HRI Herc Holdings Inc.

Industrials

168.14 +2.38 +1.44% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -25.2%
Open
168.12
High
174.40
Low
167.71
Prev close
165.76
Volume
757.6K
Amplitude
4.04%
P/E
45.2
P/B
2.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+19.4%
52W 88.45 188.35

Is Herc Holdings Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Momentum: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Average; TTM P/E is Expensive.
TTM P/E 45.17 81th percentile Expensive
Price / book 2.8 69th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 0.5 50th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral Operating margin, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 6.2 56th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 15.05 65th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 0.57 41th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 19.38 74th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -246.22 8th percentile Lagging
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) -0.91 65th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 26.6 76th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 108,731,789 88th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 67.83 69th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Herc Holdings Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Herc Holdings Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) peers and tracking

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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 80.81%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
26 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-02)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 26, Median -0.75%, Excess -0.76%, Beat mkt rate 34.6%

60-day: Win 40%, Sample 25, Median -4.44%, Excess -2.61%, Beat mkt rate 36%

120-day: Win 36%, Sample 25, Median -9.3%, Excess -3.69%, Beat mkt rate 32%

120 days after: historical avg +0.76%

20-day -0.58%
60-day -0.51%
120-day +0.76%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
40%
36%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
-0.75%
-4.44%
-9.3%
Excess
-0.76%
-2.61%
-3.69%
Beat mkt rate
34.6%
36%
32%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.76%, lagged the market by 3.69 pts; win rate 36%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 33.9%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
20 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-08)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +2.96%, Excess +1.88%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%

60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +12.19%, Excess +11.32%, Beat mkt rate 68.4%

120-day: Win 72.2%, Sample 18, Median +15.53%, Excess +20.51%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%

120 days after: historical avg +29.93%

20-day +2.75%
60-day +16.75%
120-day +29.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.4%
68.4%
72.2%
Sample
19
19
18
Median
+2.96%
+12.19%
+15.53%
Excess
+1.88%
+11.32%
+20.51%
Beat mkt rate
63.2%
68.4%
61.1%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 29.93%, beat the market by 20.51 pts; win rate 72.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 109+48.4% +50.8% 100% +20.9%
20-40 436+10.4% +4.9% 60.1% -5.5%
40-60 154-13.7% -15.7% 15.6% -22.4%
60-80 161-17.6% -18.9% 8.7% -19.6%
80-100 You are here146+11% +3.2% 52.1% +14.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 45.17, placing it in the 93.5 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+3.6%
Win rate 56% Excess -4.8%
209d
-7%
Win rate 32.1% Excess -10.6%
246d
+19.3%
Win rate 64.6% Excess +13.4%
212d
60-day momentum down
+29.5%
Win rate 92.2% Excess +21.1%
255d
-18.5%
Win rate 23.7% Excess -16.4%
118d
Now
+10%
Win rate 65.1% Excess -8.7%
86d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 86 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10%, win rate 65.1%, lagged the market by 8.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.43%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by -0.15 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.29%, win rate 38.5%, beating the market by -3.86 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.