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HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Industrials

212.97 +13.75 +6.90% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +70.0%
Open
202.54
High
213.75
Low
201.95
Prev close
199.22
Volume
5.3M
Amplitude
5.92%
P/E
39.0
P/B
13.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+22.0%
52W 183.52 310.00

Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey, Momentum: Weak.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 38.99 77th percentile Pricey
Price / book 13.75 94th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 2.44 56th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 35.63 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 28.76 82th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.83 76th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 22.02 76th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 43.54 75th percentile Good
Momentum Weak 240-day return is Average; 60-day return is Lagging.
60-day return (%) -31.2 17th percentile Lagging
240-day return (%) -1.86 49th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 795,371,253 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 43.05 49th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Howmet Aerospace Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Howmet Aerospace Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) peers and tracking

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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 22.02%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2022-08-04)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 25%, Sample 8, Median -5.19%, Excess -2.9%, Beat mkt rate 25%

60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +4.04%, Excess -2.19%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +15.4%, Excess +2.34%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

120 days after: historical avg +9.73%

20-day -3.65%
60-day +0.43%
120-day +9.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
25%
62.5%
71.4%
Sample
8
8
7
Median
-5.19%
+4.04%
+15.4%
Excess
-2.9%
-2.19%
+2.34%
Beat mkt rate
25%
75%
71.4%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.73%, beat the market by 2.34 pts; win rate 71.4%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 6.57%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
32 historical occurrences (since 2015-01-12)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 65.5%, Sample 29, Median +2.82%, Excess +1.75%, Beat mkt rate 58.6%

60-day: Win 72.4%, Sample 29, Median +6.89%, Excess +3.06%, Beat mkt rate 72.4%

120-day: Win 75%, Sample 28, Median +19.3%, Excess +6.74%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +13.59%

20-day +2.86%
60-day +6.93%
120-day +13.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
65.5%
72.4%
75%
Sample
29
29
28
Median
+2.82%
+6.89%
+19.3%
Excess
+1.75%
+3.06%
+6.74%
Beat mkt rate
58.6%
72.4%
64.3%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.59%, beat the market by 6.74 pts; win rate 75%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 You are here240+84.4% +97.8% 100% +62.7%
40-60 290+64.7% +56.1% 100% +47.9%
60-80 224+74.8% +80.9% 100% +60.4%
80-100 192+35.4% +37.5% 96.9% +24.2%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 38.99, placing it in the 36.9 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+54.8%
Win rate 100% Excess +40.7%
62d
+27.8%
Win rate 97.7% Excess +19.8%
436d
+20.7%
Win rate 84.8% Excess +15.6%
435d
60-day momentum down
+46.7%
Win rate 100% Excess +27%
32d
Now
+23.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +17.1%
94d
Insufficient data
(7d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum down”: across 94 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 23.4%, win rate 100%, beat the market by 17.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.86%, win rate 63.3%, beating the market by +0.53 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.22%, win rate 57.6%, beating the market by -0.49 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.