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INCY

Incyte Corporation Healthcare As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

3 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Incyte Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 45Quality 86Growth 82Momentum 82Risk / liquidity 76

Is Incyte Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 85% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 25.4%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 66th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 41th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $225.8M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-06)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median +0.04%, Excess -1.55%, Beat mkt rate 25%；60-day: Win 40%, Sample 15, Median -0.72%, Excess -3.47%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 15, Median +2.93%, Excess -9.71%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg -2.86%

20-day -0.15%
60-day +1%
120-day -2.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
40%
53.3%
Sample
16
15
15
Median
+0.04%
-0.72%
+2.93%
Excess
-1.55%
-3.47%
-9.71%
Beat mkt rate
25%
33.3%
40%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.86%, lagged the market by 9.71 pts; win rate 53.3%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 26.925519700982402%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

15 historical occurrences (since 2018-07-31)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median +0.35%, Excess +0.49%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median +0.02%, Excess -0.43%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +13.64%, Excess +7.88%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +9.84%

20-day +0.89%
60-day +1.3%
120-day +9.84%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
66.7%
Sample
14
14
12
Median
+0.35%
+0.02%
+13.64%
Excess
+0.49%
-0.43%
+7.88%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
66.7%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.84%, beat the market by 7.88 pts; win rate 66.7%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 40.45454545454544%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

24 historical occurrences (since 2015-08-04)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 21, Median +1.03%, Excess +1.57%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；60-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 21, Median +0.82%, Excess -0.75%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +6.3%, Excess +2.38%, Beat mkt rate 55%

120 days after: historical avg +8.22%

20-day +1.61%
60-day +1.02%
120-day +8.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.4%
52.4%
60%
Sample
21
21
20
Median
+1.03%
+0.82%
+6.3%
Excess
+1.57%
-0.75%
+2.38%
Beat mkt rate
52.4%
47.6%
55%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.22%, beat the market by 2.38 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here77+17.4% +10.6% 100% +7.9%
20-40 211+6.4% +13.1% 72.5% -15.4%
40-60 99-6.1% -4.8% 27.3% -29.1%
60-80 54-23% -23.9% 0% -48.3%
80-100 249+41.7% +42.8% 100% +23.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.23, placing it in the 4.4 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+2.6%
Win rate 65% Excess -5.2%
246d
-4.3%
Win rate 22.4% Excess -18%
58d
+7.3%
Win rate 47.6% Excess +2.8%
168d
60-day momentum down
+15.7%
Win rate 82.7% Excess +2.5%
104d
-9.8%
Win rate 11.4% Excess -19.1%
132d
+29.8%
Win rate 80% Excess +16.4%
100d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 246 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.6%, win rate 65%, lagged the market by 5.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.54%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +2.09 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.