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KMX CarMax, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

56.42 +0.84 +1.51% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -33.2%
Open
56.41
High
58.70
Low
55.56
Prev close
55.58
Volume
3.1M
Amplitude
5.65%
P/E
26.1
P/B
1.3
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+3.0%
52W 30.26 65.28

Is CarMax, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but TTM P/E is Pricey.
TTM P/E 26.09 64th percentile Pricey
Price / book 1.25 42th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 14.53 88th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Good, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 4.64 53th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) -0.48 35th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 4.15 49th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 2.96 43th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -37.54 39th percentile Average
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) -4.27 56th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 61.43 90th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 144,732,178 90th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 38.33 44th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From CarMax, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of CarMax, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like CarMax, Inc.

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) peers and tracking

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CarMax, Inc. (KMX) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 89.81%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
17 historical occurrences (since 2016-12-19)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +1.28%, Excess -3.15%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%

60-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 16, Median -8.79%, Excess -9.19%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 15, Median -13.78%, Excess -12.97%, Beat mkt rate 26.7%

120 days after: historical avg -6.96%

20-day -1.81%
60-day -6.23%
120-day -6.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
37.5%
33.3%
Sample
17
16
15
Median
+1.28%
-8.79%
-13.78%
Excess
-3.15%
-9.19%
-12.97%
Beat mkt rate
52.9%
31.2%
26.7%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 6.96%, lagged the market by 12.97 pts; win rate 33.3%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 366+8.1% -1.7% 48.4% -4.7%
20-40 193+2.6% +2.8% 55.4% -9.4%
40-60 164-13.8% -17.6% 22.6% -21.6%
60-80 206-17.1% -9.6% 36.9% -27.1%
80-100 You are here723-4.7% -7.5% 38.6% -23.2%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 26.09, placing it in the 81.6 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+9.9%
Win rate 73% Excess +2.6%
163d
-2.6%
Win rate 44.8% Excess -5.3%
203d
-2.5%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -10.2%
556d
60-day momentum down
-1.9%
Win rate 41.8% Excess -6%
435d
-27.1%
Win rate 14.6% Excess -36%
103d
Now
+10.8%
Win rate 74% Excess -0.9%
312d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 312 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.8%, win rate 74%, lagged the market by 0.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -8.76%, win rate 21.1%, beating the market by -10.62 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.33%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +1.24 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.45%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +5.31 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.