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MA Mastercard Incorporated

Financial Services

658.10 +20.09 +3.15% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +21.5%
Open
638.32
High
661.34
Low
638.25
Prev close
638.01
Volume
4M
Amplitude
3.62%
P/E
33.4
P/B
82.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+15.3%
52W 464.52 661.34

Is Mastercard Incorporated a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 33.37 72th percentile Pricey
Price / book 82.67 99th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 2.82 57th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong All 3 indicators are Top.
ROE, TTM (%) 251.12 97th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 60.38 94th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 43.33 91th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 15.3 69th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 22.25 68th percentile Good
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 10.94 86th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 17.66 69th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 1,925,621,797 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 20.23 22th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Mastercard Incorporated to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Mastercard Incorporated across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) peers and tracking

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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-05)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +0.68%, Excess -1.04%, Beat mkt rate 40%

60-day: Win 69%, Sample 29, Median +2.08%, Excess +0.33%, Beat mkt rate 58.6%

120-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +4.38%, Excess +0.96%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.55%

20-day -0.15%
60-day +2.94%
120-day +5.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.7%
69%
58.6%
Sample
30
29
29
Median
+0.68%
+2.08%
+4.38%
Excess
-1.04%
+0.33%
+0.96%
Beat mkt rate
40%
58.6%
48.3%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.55%, beat the market by 0.96 pts; win rate 58.6%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 83.28%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
17 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-02)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median +0.49%, Excess +0.53%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%

60-day: Win 75%, Sample 16, Median +9.59%, Excess +4.14%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120-day: Win 81.2%, Sample 16, Median +18.19%, Excess +8.13%, Beat mkt rate 68.8%

120 days after: historical avg +14.01%

20-day +0.13%
60-day +5.43%
120-day +14.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
75%
81.2%
Sample
16
16
16
Median
+0.49%
+9.59%
+18.19%
Excess
+0.53%
+4.14%
+8.13%
Beat mkt rate
56.2%
62.5%
68.8%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.01%, beat the market by 8.13 pts; win rate 81.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here190+27.6% +25.9% 100% +6.5%
20-40 494+18.6% +20.5% 92.9% +0.6%
40-60 403+4.9% +3.5% 61% -8.6%
60-80 114+1.2% -0.7% 47.4% -9.6%
80-100 247-2% -2.2% 38.9% -12%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 33.37, placing it in the 16.5 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9.1%
Win rate 89.1% Excess +0.5%
220d
+2.7%
Win rate 66.5% Excess -2.9%
508d
+1.4%
Win rate 48.8% Excess -9.9%
215d
60-day momentum down
+11.7%
Win rate 82.9% Excess +2.3%
428d
+1.9%
Win rate 59.3% Excess -2.1%
91d
+3%
Win rate 56.6% Excess -3.6%
106d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 220 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.1%, win rate 89.1%, beat the market by 0.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -1.32 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.37%, win rate 78.3%, beating the market by +1.9 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.