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MOD

Modine Manufacturing Company Industrials As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Modine Manufacturing Company to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 22Quality 59Growth 64Momentum 46Risk / liquidity 59

Is Modine Manufacturing Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 58th percentile. TTM ROE is about 11.9%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 94th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 78th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $351.6M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 29.468673218673214%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

12 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-02)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +0.44%, Excess +1.9%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 10, Median -3.29%, Excess +4.04%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 10, Median +14.57%, Excess +14.61%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +18.1%

20-day +1.08%
60-day +4.69%
120-day +18.1%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
50%
60%
Sample
11
10
10
Median
+0.44%
-3.29%
+14.57%
Excess
+1.9%
+4.04%
+14.61%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
40%
50%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.1%, beat the market by 14.61 pts; win rate 60%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 17.69230769230769%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

35 historical occurrences (since 2015-02-04)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 33, Median +6.42%, Excess +9.55%, Beat mkt rate 69.7%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 32, Median +11.07%, Excess +12.91%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；120-day: Win 71.9%, Sample 32, Median +32.01%, Excess +30.5%, Beat mkt rate 65.6%

120 days after: historical avg +37.44%

20-day +10.54%
60-day +15.4%
120-day +37.44%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
72.7%
62.5%
71.9%
Sample
33
32
32
Median
+6.42%
+11.07%
+32.01%
Excess
+9.55%
+12.91%
+30.5%
Beat mkt rate
69.7%
56.2%
65.6%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 37.44%, beat the market by 30.5 pts; win rate 71.9%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 211+107.3% +147.2% 71.6% +90.1%
20-40 321+197.3% +167.6% 99.4% +173.1%
40-60 267+164% +166.4% 89.5% +141.4%
60-80 225+52.6% +28.2% 69.3% +38%
80-100 You are here67+12.9% +13.3% 89.6% -1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 75.59, placing it in the 88.2 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+48.3%
Win rate 88.1% Excess +44.9%
160d
+63.5%
Win rate 99.2% Excess +51.3%
353d
+14.6%
Win rate 59.1% Excess +9.3%
252d
60-day momentum down
+21%
Win rate 59.4% Excess +16.6%
202d
+106.9%
Win rate 97.7% Excess +83.8%
177d
Now
+43.5%
Win rate 62.7% Excess +35.1%
67d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 67 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 43.5%, win rate 62.7%, beat the market by 35.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.91%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +5.98 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +23.51%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +19.38 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.