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MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Energy

430.39 USD Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-03 +186.3%
Open
437.72
High
445.37
Low
428.72
Prev close
444.73
Volume
2.9M
Amplitude
3.74%
P/E
14.8
P/B
6.3
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+15.3%
52W 161.93 493.98

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-11-02

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Strong, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 14.82 40th percentile Fair
Price / book 6.34 87th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 10.67 83th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 44.84 91th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 7.95 52th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 8.38 58th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top; Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 15.26 69th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 330.19 93th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 44.73 98th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 123.33 97th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 935,737,097 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 39.35 45th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-11-02

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Marathon Petroleum Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Marathon Petroleum Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) peers and tracking

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 96%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
29 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-17)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +1.65%, Excess -2.51%, Beat mkt rate 44.8%

60-day: Win 72.4%, Sample 29, Median +3.82%, Excess -0.03%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%

120-day: Win 78.6%, Sample 28, Median +14.64%, Excess +5.36%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +12.19%

20-day -1.68%
60-day +3.15%
120-day +12.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.6%
72.4%
78.6%
Sample
29
29
28
Median
+1.65%
+3.82%
+14.64%
Excess
-2.51%
-0.03%
+5.36%
Beat mkt rate
44.8%
51.7%
64.3%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.19%, beat the market by 5.36 pts; win rate 78.6%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 15.26%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-06)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -0.92%, Excess +2.38%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%

60-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -0.48%, Excess +10.33%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +13.92%, Excess +8.63%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +9.15%

20-day +2.75%
60-day +8.85%
120-day +9.15%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
44.4%
62.5%
Sample
9
9
8
Median
-0.92%
-0.48%
+13.92%
Excess
+2.38%
+10.33%
+8.63%
Beat mkt rate
44.4%
55.6%
50%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.15%, beat the market by 8.63 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 379+66.7% +37.8% 98.9% +43%
20-40 196-3.6% -6.3% 36.2% -18.6%
40-60 83+29.9% +34.2% 75.9% +13.4%
60-80 You are here155+43.5% +31.9% 99.4% +29.1%
80-100 249+77.9% +69% 99.6% +74.7%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 14.82, placing it in the 62.0 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+15%
Win rate 84.5% Excess +4.1%
310d
Now
+21.8%
Win rate 54.3% Excess +14.4%
151d
+28.8%
Win rate 97.3% Excess +28.2%
330d
60-day momentum down
+90.4%
Win rate 93.6% Excess +69.1%
140d
+7.5%
Win rate 46.8% Excess +0.4%
173d
+41.6%
Win rate 98.7% Excess +30.7%
78d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 151 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 21.8%, win rate 54.3%, beat the market by 14.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,771 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.43%, a 58.5% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.25%, win rate 84.6%, beating the market by +7.11 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.38%, win rate 68.6%, beating the market by +4.77 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.