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MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

Technology

1,212 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +112.0%
Open
1,174
High
1,263
Low
1,171
Prev close
1,199
Volume
2M
Amplitude
7.68%
P/E
66.9
P/B
15.9
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+40.5%
52W 833.18 1,714

Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 66.87 88th percentile Expensive
Price / book 15.95 95th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 0.98 51th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 23.88 85th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 29.5 83th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 15.66 70th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 40.49 85th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -53.73 34th percentile Average
Momentum Good 240-day return is Good, but 60-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) -10.72 41th percentile Average
240-day return (%) 32.53 79th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 1,024,824,606 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 50.11 56th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 40.49%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

17 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-08)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 16, Median +2.84%, Excess -2.73%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%

60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 16, Median +7.02%, Excess +2.76%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120-day: Win 60%, Sample 15, Median +20.49%, Excess +12.49%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +19.27%

20-day -0.63%
60-day +5.79%
120-day +19.27%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.2%
62.5%
60%
Sample
16
16
15
Median
+2.84%
+7.02%
+20.49%
Excess
-2.73%
+2.76%
+12.49%
Beat mkt rate
56.2%
62.5%
66.7%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.27%, beat the market by 12.49 pts; win rate 60%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 5.13%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
10 historical occurrences (since 2020-07-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 9, Median +2.85%, Excess +3.83%, Beat mkt rate 77.8%

60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 9, Median +12.2%, Excess +6.74%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +24.23%, Excess +16.75%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg +22.18%

20-day +4.73%
60-day +8.51%
120-day +22.18%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
66.7%
75%
Sample
9
9
8
Median
+2.85%
+12.2%
+24.23%
Excess
+3.83%
+6.74%
+16.75%
Beat mkt rate
77.8%
66.7%
75%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.18%, beat the market by 16.75 pts; win rate 75%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 477+65.4% +54.2% 100% +43.8%
20-40 You are here168+37.2% +30.5% 82.7% +17.2%
40-60 117+27.8% +18.1% 65% +16.6%
60-80 150+9.8% -0.4% 49.3% +3.7%
80-100 518+21.4% +14.4% 64.7% +9.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 66.87, placing it in the 36.2 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+27.7%
Win rate 92.7% Excess +18.7%
395d
+18.1%
Win rate 69.4% Excess +12.7%
134d
+6.8%
Win rate 54.2% Excess -1.6%
566d
60-day momentum down
+34.4%
Win rate 87.3% Excess +23.3%
252d
Now
+19.8%
Win rate 77.1% Excess +16%
83d
+23.2%
Win rate 72.5% Excess +22%
120d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum down”: across 83 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.8%, win rate 77.1%, beat the market by 16%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.54%, win rate 70.6%, beating the market by +1.87 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.95%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +6.78 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.