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MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Technology

507.12 -14.79 -2.83% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +22.8%
Open
524.02
High
529.63
Low
504.96
Prev close
521.91
Volume
33.8M
Amplitude
4.73%
P/E
27.3
P/B
8.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+17.9%
52W 349.20 551.15

Is Microsoft Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 27.25 65th percentile Pricey
Price / book 8.24 90th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.55 53th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong Operating margin, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 30.31 88th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 47.1 91th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 17.31 72th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 17.91 72th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 36.2 73th percentile Good
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) 4.61 80th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 3.15 55th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 11,197,981,421 100th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 21.21 23th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Microsoft Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Microsoft Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Microsoft Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 81.15%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
27 historical occurrences (since 2016-10-24)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 26, Median +1.59%, Excess +1.53%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

60-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 24, Median +6.12%, Excess +3.27%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 24, Median +13.32%, Excess +6.82%, Beat mkt rate 70.8%

120 days after: historical avg +11.82%

20-day +2.54%
60-day +6.17%
120-day +11.82%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
83.3%
83.3%
Sample
26
24
24
Median
+1.59%
+6.12%
+13.32%
Excess
+1.53%
+3.27%
+6.82%
Beat mkt rate
57.7%
75%
70.8%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.82%, beat the market by 6.82 pts; win rate 83.3%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 17.91%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

21 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-26)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median +0.39%, Excess -0.94%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +3.31%, Excess +0.32%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +10.08%, Excess +0.85%, Beat mkt rate 55%

120 days after: historical avg +7.05%

20-day +0.18%
60-day +3.38%
120-day +7.05%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
70%
70%
Sample
20
20
20
Median
+0.39%
+3.31%
+10.08%
Excess
-0.94%
+0.32%
+0.85%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
55%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.05%, beat the market by 0.85 pts; win rate 70%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 130+44.8% +43.8% 100% +25.8%
20-40 You are here125+41% +50.6% 100% +26.2%
40-60 299+18.6% +17.7% 72.9% +6%
60-80 890+18.5% +22.4% 76.5% +3%
80-100 147-3.3% -2.1% 44.2% -18.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 27.25, placing it in the 22.6 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+29%
Win rate 94% Excess +21.5%
67d
+17.6%
Win rate 89.3% Excess +12.2%
326d
+5.5%
Win rate 68.9% Excess -2.1%
748d
60-day momentum down
+19.7%
Win rate 77.1% Excess +10.5%
205d
+4.7%
Win rate 44.3% Excess -0.8%
307d
+7%
Win rate 60.3% Excess -4.4%
58d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 67 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 29%, win rate 94%, beat the market by 21.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.6%, win rate 75.8%, beating the market by +2.61 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.1%, win rate 78.1%, beating the market by +3.01 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.